Tuesday 09 June 2015 2:00 pm

QPR’s Charlie Austin the most likely player in Europe to be transferred this summer says new study

By: Joe Hall

Charlie Austin leaving Queens Park Rangers is the "most likely" move to happen this summer transfer window, according to a new study.

The CIES Football Observatory, an academic group based in Switzerland, has created an econometric algorithm that looks at the variables involved in over 1,500 transfers since 2009 to determine the most likely moves to happen this summer.

According to the group's estimated transfer value, QPR should charge between €10.2m (£7.5m) and €11.2m for their leading scorer.

Read more: Tony Fernandes must implement austerity measures at QPR

Austin, currently on international duty with England, impressed in his debut Premier League season, netting 18 goals in a struggling side that finished bottom of the table.

A potential move away from Loftus Road fits a number of common variables for a summer transfer identified by the group, most notably the fact that Austin plays for a side recently relegated from the top division.

The CIES report states: "Relegation obliges teams to compensate declining revenues through transfers. Moreover, this situation tends to encourage players to leave the club."

Also increasing the likelihood of a move away from Loftus Road is the fact the 25-year-old striker has just one year remaining on his contract with QPR, meaning the club could be more willing to listen to any offers in order to avoid the risk of Austin walking out of the club for nothing in a year's time.

"Players with one remaining year of contract are also over-represented among those with the greatest possibility of a paid transfer", states the CIES report.

QPR manager Chris Ramsey would ideally like to keep Austin in his squad, but has admitted "it would be difficult to hold on to him". 

The club's chances of holding on to Austin are made all the more unlikely by the precarious financial position they find themselves in after suffering relegation to the Championship.

After racking up huge losses beyond the maximum permitted by the Football League's financial fair play laws during their last season in the Championship, QPR face a large £58m fine upon their return.

Three other QPR players appear on the CIES Observatory's list of 100 most-likely to be transferred this summer including Leroy Fer (60th), Steven Caulker (77th) and Junior Hoillet (85th).

The only other Premier League player to appear in the top 10 most likely is Liverpool's Raheem Sterling. The 10 most-likely Premier League players to be transferred according to the Observatory's algorithm are listed below.