Forget Obama’s self-interested intervention: Brexit would boost Britain’s global influence
Would Britain be more or less influential in the world if we left the EU? The Remain camp argument is very clear: we would lose influence with exit and we can get better trade deals from within the EU than without. On top of that, President Obama and former secretary-generals of Nato all say that the UK should remain in the EU. A slam-dunk case, you might think. I think not.
There are three ways of looking at President Obama’s opinion. First, it reflects a Democratic worldview, with the EU seen in broad terms as a kindred spirit in favour of an interventionist state. Second, it reflects America’s geopolitical self-interest, with Obama keen to see a powerful sympathetic voice towards the US remain inside the EU. Finally, Obama’s view is not necessarily reflective of the US as a whole. The majority of Republicans probably think the UK would be better out than in the EU.
Suddenly, the American case for the UK staying in the EU doesn’t look very compelling at all. But let’s ignore the US dimension and look at just how powerful the UK would be outside the EU.
Measuring state power is quite a challenge empirically. Over the years all sorts of different measures have been advocated. But in broad terms, power is said to be a function of population size, the size of the economy, the scale of defence spending, and various measures of soft power (e.g. the English language, or the American Dream).
On all these measures the UK looks very powerful. The UK population is expanding, whereas countries such as Russia face a demographic implosion. UK population projections show an increase of 10m to 74m over the next 25 years (admittedly less if we left the EU).
The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world, and on some projections could become the fourth largest, overtaking Japan and Germany in the 2030s.
The UK is one of the largest defence spenders in the world. On both the SIPRI and IISS measures, the UK ranks fifth in the world, behind the USA, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Hard power might also include key parameters such as the possession of nuclear weapons, Britain being one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, or the Special Relationship with the US.
Measures of soft power show the UK sits at the top of the world. The Institute for Government ranks the UK number one in the world for soft power. The Soft Power 30 index also ranks the UK number one in the world.
So on measures of both hard and soft power, the UK ranks very highly and would continue to do so outside the EU. Indeed, one might expect our soft power advantage to increase even further, as the UK asserted its own independent identity in the world. Hard power could also increase, with the UK rising to third place in the world for defence spending over the coming decades, owing to serious long-term economic challenges in Saudi Arabia and Russia.
In geopolitical terms leaving the EU would be a step forward, not backwards. The idea that we would somehow be weaker is difficult to reconcile with the facts.