Skip to content
Sunday 16 August 2026London --:--Frankfurt --:--Zurich --:--
NewslettersSearchEN · DE
MorningWire

European business, markets and politics

FTSE 100
10,750.11
-0.21%
DAX
26,440.31
+0.53%
CAC 40
8,636.80
-0.16%
STOXX 50
6,539.59
-0.09%
  • Europe
  • Markets
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Technology
  • Politics
  • Opinion
More
GermanyFranceBankingAIEnergyFintechPropertyCapital Markets
  • Germany
  • France
  • Europe
  • Markets
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Technology
  • Politics
  • Opinion
  • DE
Thursday 20 October 2016 4:03 am

­­With less than three weeks until voters go to the polls, is Donald Trump now too far behind to win?

By: Ed Bowsher and Rachel Cunliffe

Add as a preferred source on Google

Ed Bowsher, deputy editor at Share Radio, says Yes.

I said back in January that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump and I haven’t changed my mind. Trump’s comments on women have been very damaging and his victory next month is extremely unlikely. Clinton’s average poll lead over Trump is now 7 per cent, according to RealClearPolitics, and it’s very hard for any candidate to make up such a large deficit so close to the election. Granted, polls are tight in the important battleground state of Ohio, but Clinton is in a much stronger position in most other battlegrounds and she’s moved some traditionally Republican states, such as Arizona, into the “toss up” column. What’s more, Clinton has a far better “get out the vote” organisation in the crucial battleground states, and Trump’s recent rows with his party leadership have only made that situation worse. And his ridiculous claims that the election is “rigged” suggest he knows that he’s beaten. Thankfully, Trump has blown it and it’s hard to see how Hillary can lose.

Rachel Cunliffe, deputy editor of Reaction, says No.

There’s no such thing as a sure result – just ask the dozens of political pundits who watched in astonishment as the hung parliament they’d all predicted morphed into a Tory majority in the UK 2015 election. The US presidential race is actually over 50 individual elections, making it even harder to get a clear overall picture. Hillary Clinton leads in some key battleground states, but others – like Ohio and North Carolina – remain tight. Most polls also assume this is a two-way race – it isn’t. The release of Clinton’s Wall Street speeches won’t send leftwing Democrats to Donald Trump, but voters might turn to Green Party candidate Jill Stein in protest, curbing Clinton’s lead. Then there’s WikiLeaks’ attempt to destroy Clinton (with the help of Russian hackers). All it would take is one damning revelation close to 8 November, or another terror attack whipping up anti-Muslim sentiment, to hand Trump an unexpected victory. Trump is imploding, but polls are fickle, voters lie, and anything could still happen.

Share this article

  • Facebook
  • X
  • LinkedIn
  • WhatsApp
  • Email

Similarly tagged content:

Sections

  • News
  • Opinion

Categories

  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Politics

Trending Articles

  • Grandparents fund university degrees to avoid inheritance tax net

  • Revolut chatbot goes rogue by charging users to cancel subscription

  • Brompton Bicycle sues former adviser for ‘professional negligence’

  • Revolut takes flight with launch of new airport lounges

  • Is the Zeekr 9X Super Hybrid the new luxury SUV to beat?

More from Morning Wire

  • David Brent was supposed to be a satire, now he looks like a model for political leaders

    Opinion
    Ricky Gervais as David Brent performing on stage, wearing sunglasses and a patterned vest.
  • Trump speaks up for Infantino at last as Fifa boss fights world football rebellion

    Sport Business
    Donald Trump in a white USA hat, blue suit, and white shirt, making a fist, with a presidential seal visible
  • As it happened: Stocks fall as oil creeps up; Trump to ‘finish job’ in Iran

    Markets
    Donald Trump speaking at the PAAP office conference, addressing key political issues and strategies in a formal setting.
  • As it happened: Stocks reverse losses after Trump threatens harder strikes on Iran; Oil at four-week high

    Markets
    Donald Trump has threatened to sue the BBC for $1bn
  • Donald Trump is creeping towards a shrewd sanctions policy

    Opinion
    Donald Trump holding a red TRUMP 2028 hat, wearing a tuxedo with an American flag in the background
  • As it happened: FTSE 100 rises to defy tech gloom; oil creeps up on fresh Iran tensions

    Markets
    Donald Trump with hand on chin, appearing contemplative during a public event, wearing a suit and red tie.
  • Gianni Infantino: Democrats ask to quiz Fifa boss over Trump ‘corruption’ allegations

    Sport Business
    Donald Trump and FIFA President Gianni Infantino smiling, looking upwards during an event.
  • As it happened: Stocks rise as oil fluctuates after Red Sea attack; US-Iran deal ‘being circulated’

    FTSE 100 Live
    Donald Trump delivering a speech at a podium during a formal event, emphasizing key points to an attentive audience.
MorningWire

Independent European business, markets and political news for decision-makers.

Morning Briefing

Europe

  • Germany
  • France
  • Europe
  • UK & Ireland

Business

  • Markets
  • Banking
  • Technology
  • Energy
  • Property
  • Fintech

Editorial

  • Opinion
  • Editorial Policy
  • Corrections
  • Contact

Company

  • About Morning Wire
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Cookie Policy
© 2026 Morning Wire Ltd · Published by Morning Wire Media, Bahnhofstrasse 65, 8001 Zürich, Switzerland
Privacy · Terms · Cookies · Facebook