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Thursday 20 October 2016 8:55 am

Mexican peso jumps then fades as Trump fails to impress in US Presidential Election debate

By: Jake Cordell

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The currency markets have spoken and Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner of last night's US Presidential Election debate.

After a feisty exchange which yet again saw the pair fail to shake hands and where name-calling, bickering and allegation-hurling were the order of the day, Republican Donald Trump failed to leave many marks on his rival.

Or at least that's the instant reaction from buyers-and-sellers of the Mexican peso think.

Read more: What happens if Trump wins?

The currency, which is seen as a proxy for the fortunes of the US electoral cycle, climbed again after last night's performance to briefly hit a seven-week high, before it lost some ground in Asian trading.

David Bloom, head of foreign exchange at HSBC has previously described the peso as a "Trump thermometer". Ahead of the previous debate he said: "If you want to know who won, don't go to to Twitter or Facebook, just look at the Mexican peso."

The Mexican peso has rallied since the debate season started.

One US dollar will have bought 18.4606 Mexican pesos in the minutes after the debate, as the peso is now up 6.8 per cent from when the campaign's first debate took place at the end of September. 

However, the currency has since slipped back in afternoon trading and now stands at 18.5587.

In minutes from the Bank of Mexico's latest meeting, released last week, the central bank warned the US Presidential Election was the biggest risk facing their economy.

FXTM's chief market strategist Hussein Sayed said he expects market volatility to fade as the 8 November poll date approaches and Hillary Clinton solidifies her lead.

However, market watchers will be aware that a similar sequence of events happened in the run up the UK's EU referendum, where leads for Remain saw sterling jump and the FTSE 100 rally in the days before the vote – only to suffer sharp falls when it became clear the Leave side had defied the odds.

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