This influential banker says the Trump bump has only just begun
Bankim Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s global chief strategist is bullish about the prospect of further growth in equities this year.
Writing in a note, Chadha said the S&P 500 index could rise to a record of 2,600 points by the end of the year. The US index closed at a record of 2,307.87 points last week.
He added that the initial “Trump bump” following the results of the Presidential election in November can be attributed to a reduction in market uncertainty following the vote.
“It in fact followed the typical trajectory around close Presidential elections, pricing out the uncertainty risk premium rather than pricing in policy changes or stimulus; ditto for the move up in bond yields,” Chadha wrote.
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The comments put him at odds with the outlook of financial figures such as Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, as well as the investor, George Soros, and economist Nouriel Roubini, who are less optimistic about the prospect a pro-business White House agenda bringing returns for stock markets.
Dalio, who manages the world’s largest hedge fund warned in a note last week: “We are now in a period of time when how this balance tilts will be more important to the economy, markets and our well-beings than normally dominant drivers such as central bank policies.”
Meanwhile, Roubini warned this week that the Trump rally may be about to come to an abrupt end as businesses increasingly factor in the uncertainty caused by his policies.
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Writing in an article for Project Syndicate, the New York University professor said: "As the vacillation in financial markets since Trump’s inauguration indicates, the President’s inconsistent, erratic, and destructive policies will take their toll on domestic and global economic growth in the long run.”
The S&P 500 has risen by seven per cent since Trump’s victory in November. The Dow Jones index hit a record of 20,000 points last month, while the Nasdaq composite hit its own record this week and is five per cent up on the year.