A successor to Putin is just as likely to be an aggressor to the West if we’re not careful
The Wagner Group attack over the weekend is proof that Vladimir Putin won’t survive the war in Ukraine. But the West should be concerned about who could come next, writes Daniel Sleat
Over the weekend, there was a whisper of a possibility that the tenure of Vladimir Putin might be heading towards a crashing end. Indeed, the events in Russia were important, but not for the reasons many have speculated.
The uprising from Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner Group, moved from public criticism of the Russian military to open revolt, many, understandably, hoped this might be the thing to break Putin’s tight grip – or at the very least weaken it. The threat, however, has proved not to be immediately existential for the Russian leader, instead it has illuminated the scale of the long-term challenge for him to maintain his rule. Those of us in the West should be wary of concluding that anyone is better than Putin, or that any replacement is somehow more likely to push Russian society in a moderate direction.
For some time, tensions between Prigozhin and senior figures in the Russian military had been building. His regular Telegram videos, where he shares his views on the war in Ukraine, have been increasingly critical. In May, for the first time, Prigozhin went as far as to criticise Putin personally. A break between the Kremlin and Prigozhin had started to become inevitable. In recent weeks signs began to emerge that within the struggle between Prigozin and senior military figures – like Defence Minister Shoigu and Army Chief of Staff Gerasimov – Putin was beginning to more decisively side with his military. Prigozhin reached a tipping point: either the Wagner Group would slowly become consumed within the Russian military or he had to up the ante in his attempts to have those key military figures removed.
If Prigozhin hoped others would support his march on Moscow, he was sorely disappointed. In the absence of this, he would have hoped the pressure on Putin was enough to trigger changes within the military to help consolidate Wagner’s position. This too didn’t happen. As the events unfolded it became clear he was marching his troops to the top of the hill without a clear plan on what he would do when he got there. The efforts by Belarus’ President, Aleksandr Lukashenko, to mediate a climb down then became a lifeline. Prigozhin would leave for Belarus in exile, the Wagner Group itself could join the Russian military.
Crisis averted.
While the immediate flashing red light for Putin has been dimmed, long term, Prigozhin’s actions should be the final signal we need that Putin is not likely to outlast the Ukraine war. The war has unfolded in a way that has become too disastrous and too costly for him to come back from. The problem though, as Prigozhin found, is that there is no clear alternative to Putin at present. The problem for us is that there is no candidate on the horizon that is likely to be more moderate than Putin. So, yes, the uprising is a signal that this is the beginning of the end for Putin, but that may not be wholly good news without a plan by the West to shape who follows.
If the West wants a future relationship with Russia that is more amicable, with a leader in the Kremlin more moderate in stance, we need to do more than cross our fingers hoping for one. We can’t overstate our influence within Russia at present, nor be considering interference which is too active. But the West desperately needs a plan to better engage with Russian society, using platforms like Telegram, to help shape the future direction of the country in a more moderate direction.
There has been a widespread crackdown on information in Russia, but there are still social media channels which would allow us to cut through the Kremlin’s propaganda narrative, and work those who want a different future for Russia. It’s the beginning of the end for Putin, but without a plan for what happens next, we’ll be resigned to crossing our fingers and hoping for the best.