Advertising spend is expected to keep growing after Brexit vote (in some sectors, at least)
Advertising expenditure in the UK is predicted to grow this year and next, despite uncertainty around the Brexit vote.
But forecasts from the Advertising Association/ Warc Expenditure Report are down on previous estimates from before the EU referendum.
Total UK adspend is expected to grow 4.2 per cent to £20.9bn this year, down from the bodies’ April estimate of 5.5 per cent. And a 3.8 per cent growth is forecast for 2017 – also down from 5.5 per cent.
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“These numbers suggest that, despite uncertainty, our sector is resilient,” said Advertising Association chief executive Tim Lefroy.
“Government can underpin that by taking every step possible to build advertiser confidence, promote the UK as a global advertising hub and ensure we remain open to the world’s best advertising talent.”
Despite the fact overall adspend growth is still expected, the referendum has deepened the expected decline of certain sectors, with newspapers expected to suffer in particular.
| Sector | Adspend forecast for 2016 (£) | Change on 2015 adspend | Adspend growth forecast for 2017 |
| TV | 5,458 | 3.6% | 3.1% |
| Radio | 609 | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| National newsbrands | 1,098 | -10.1% | -10.8% |
| Regional newsbrands | 1,062 | -9.7% | -8.5% |
| Magazine brands | 886 | -5.9% | -7% |
| Cinema | 243 | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| Internet | 9,665 | 12.3% | 10.1% |
| Direct mail | 1,672 | -7.2% | -5% |
| Total UK adspend | 20,868 | 4.2% | 3.8% |
Spending on national newsbrands is now expected to fall 10.1 per cent this year to £1.1bn (previous estimate -5.9 per cent), and even more so next year, down 10.8 per cent (previous estimate -3.4 per cent).
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It’s a similar story among regional newsbrands, with spending expected to be down 9.7 per cent this year to £1.1bn and 8.5 per cent next.
TV adspend growth, meanwhile, has been revised down from 5.1 per cent growth to 3.6 per cent this year, taking the total to £5.2bn, and 5.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent in 2017.
Internet adspend, meanwhile, is now predicted to be higher this year – up 12.3 per cent (previously 11.5 per cent) to £9.7bn.