Analyst picks for 14 February 2012
STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Short S&P 500, long euro-Swissie, long dollar-yen
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
The prevailing risk appetite run that has guided the markets since the beginning of the year has been impressive, but also looks to be a little tired at current levels. There are a number of appealing setups to accompany the risk positive environment, but I remain sceptical with these fundamentals. As such, I’ll keep a standing order for an S&P breakdown below 1,300, while also holding exposure in the non-risk dependent dollar-yen and euro-Swiss franc positions.
STRATEGIST
JOEL KRUGER
My pick: Buy dollar-Canadian dollar on a daily close above Ca$1.0035
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
Our constructive outlook remains, despite the interday pullback, with the market largely still consolidating around parity ahead of what we believe will be an eventual retest of the key October highs by Ca$1.0660. Look for any interday pullbacks to be very well supported above Ca$0.9900, while only a close below Ca$0.9900 would give reason for concern. A close back above Ca$1.0035 should accelerate gains. Stops should be placed on a close below Ca$0.9900 with a Ca$1.0600 objective.
STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Short gold
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
US economic data continues to outperform expectations by impressive margins but headwinds from the Eurozone, where a recession is likely already underway, are still a drag on the recovery. This means both QE3 and inflation expectations are likely to be capped. Prices appear to be forming a Head and Shoulders top with the peak marked by a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at $1,763.00. I will remain short, initially looking for a test below the $1,700 figure.