ANALYST VIEWS: HOW LOW DO YOU THINK EURO-DOLLAR CAN GO?
IAN STANNARD | BNP PARIBAS
“We have revised our euro-US dollar projection sharply lower and now expect a decline to parity by the first quarter of 2011. While we have one of the most euro bearish forecasts in the market, these previous projections now seem too moderate given current developments.”
MICHAEL HEWSON | CMC MARKETS
“We could see euro-US dollar fall to as low $1.15 over the course of the next 12 months. The big technical level to watch out for is $1.1210. Parity is a possibility over the course of the next two to three years if none of the structural problems inherent in the Eurozone gets resolved, and I don’t see how they can be.”
MARK O’SULLIVAN | CURRENCIES DIRECT
“I believe that the euro could fall to $1.20 by the end of this year. The current turmoil is actually not a currency crisis, it’s caused by weak governments and flaws in the whole European Union project. It’s not just speculators who are selling the euro, it’s also central banks who are questioning whether it really is an alternative to the US dollar.”
STEPHEN GALLO | SCHNEIDER FX
“Although I think fair value for the pair is somewhere between $1.30 and $1.35, speculators could happily take it below $1.25 and I would be surprised if we don’t test this in the next week or so. Long-term investors are being very cautious regarding the euro and aren’t getting back into the market yet. I expect $1.33 for the first quarter of 2011.”