As a poll shows a nine-point lead for Brexit, is the Leave camp heading for victory?
Martin Durkin, a television director and producer who s currently crowdfunding on Kickstarter to make “Brexit: The Movie, says Yes.
Our lazy, unprincipled politico-bureaucratic elite is about to get a bloody nose. British people will not be governed by people who they don’t know, haven’t elected and can’t remove from power. Nor can we stomach obeying laws we haven’t debated and have little or no chance of blocking. David Cameron’s craven attempt to win EU approval for a minor tweak to our benefits system has merely highlighted our shocking loss of self-government. And as for the “risks” of being outside the EU, we’re not blind. We can see the thriving non EU-Swiss. Per head of population, they export five times more than us and are twice as wealthy. Non-EU Norway exports four times as much as us per head. When it comes to trade, jobs and wealth, both these independent European countries put the economically stagnant EU (including Germany) to shame. Our smug ruling elite is about to learn a lesson. The British will not lightly give up the right to govern themselves.
Tom Mludzinski, head of political polling at ComRes, says No.
When it comes to the EU referendum, not all polls tell the same story. There is a clear methodological difference. YouGov’s nine-point lead for Leave (conducted online) compares sharply with 18 and 19 point Remain leads from ComRes and Ipsos Mori (both by phone). But at this stage, without so much as an official referendum date, polls are simply looking to reflect a snapshot of opinion. These polls are not predicting the end result. At a referendum, there is a much more “low information” electorate, making any polling about the issue particularly sensitive to differences in the political engagement of the sample being surveyed, and why we believe telephone polls are more accurately capturing the views of the wider public. At the moment, polls are most useful in showing the direction of travel. The latest poll has captured a shift in opinion towards Leave, but whether it is big enough, or permanent enough, to overturn Remain’s inbuilt status quo advantage remains to be seen.