Aviation expects numbers to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2024
The aviation industry expects traveller numbers to exceed pre-pandemic levels starting from 2024.
According to a forecast by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), overall numbers will reach 4 billion in 2024, 103 per cent up on 2019 levels.
Even though the impact of Omicron has caused a slight shift in near-term recovery predictions, the overall picture has remained unchanged.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant,” said IATA’s director general and former IAG boss Willie Walsh.
“There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.”
While some regions such as Asia-Pacific have still a long way to go before they get back to pre-Covid levels, markets such as Europe and North American will see a full recovery by 2024 following the relaxation of travelling measures.
“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel,” Walsh continued. “Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus.”
The forecast, released today, didn’t calculate the impact of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, as the industry has become resilient against similar shocks and it’s unlikely the conflict will bear a long-term impact for the industry. Fluctuations in energy prices and rerouting could still bear a short-term cost for the sector.