Barclays most ‘hurt’ bank to UK economy downgrades
Barclays has been branded the bank most set to be “hurt” by the downgrades slapped on the UK economy following the turmoil caused by the war in the Middle East.
The bank’s macroeconomic forecasts hold the most optimistic assumptions when compared to its FTSE 100 peers.
This leaves the lender with a less of a buffer should the economy underperform, whilst other banks internal models have been adjusted to reflect their more conservative outlook.
Barclays forecast for 2026 economic growth – which is used to calculate expected credit losses – comes in at 1.1 per cent, far above the more modest 0.7 per cent pencilled in by Lloyds.
The independent body average – which pulls a consensus from a range of professional institutions outside of the banks themselves, such as the IMF, HM Treasury, NIESR, Bloomberg, and the Bank of England – sits at one per cent.
When compared with this average, Barclays and HSBC are the only lenders to take a more optimistic view.
Downgrades could hit Barclays
But come 2028, HSBC falls in line with the average whilst Barclays’ bullish view is 0.5 per cent higher.
Benjamin Toms, equity analyst at RBC, said: “Macroeconomic downgrades could hurt Barclays the most.”
It comes after Rachel Reeves was hit with the biggest growth downgrade of any G7 country by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday.
The UK’s economic growth was revised down by 0.5 percentage points due to the trade disruption caused by the US-Israel war with Iran. The IMF had previously pencilled in 1.3 per cent growth in 2026, a slower pace than last year, but it now forecast a rise of just 0.8 per cent.
Other G7 countries, plus the likes of Russia, Spain, South Africa and Nigeria, were predicted to suffer less damaging hits to growth over 2026.
On the unemployment front, Barclays forecasts also undershoots the independent average.
For 2026, the bank predicts the rate will be 4.8 per cent, falling 0.5 per cent under the average. Lloyds once again adopted a more conservative outlook, forecasting 5.6 per cent.