Ben Houchen proves Tories can win – as long as they don’t run as Tories
Ben Houchen held onto the Tees Valley mayoralty by forcefully rejecting the Conservative brand. Other Tory candidates will take note, says Fintan Smith
The Conservative Party have suffered a massive blow following last Thursday’s elections. And it was personal for Rishi Sunak – Tories did best when they distanced themselves from the Prime Minister.
Labour now hold all but one of the 12 mayoralties. The Tees Valley’s Ben Houchen is the lone Conservative who clung on despite a swing of over 16 per cent to Labour.
Tories allowed their leader to mark his own homework when it came to these elections. A long-expected coup was promised if he failed. He had to hold on to Teesside and the West Midlands’ mayoralties. He almost achieved his aim.
Now the dust has settled, those celebrating Sunak look at risk of appearing ridiculous. Houchen won – and Andy Street in the West Midlands almost clinched victory – by forcefully rejecting the Conservatives.
Both turned to Boris Johnson for election support, urging voters to ignore the chaos of Downing Street. Houchen claimed to have “lost” his Conservative rosette at the Teesside count – but assured journalists that his socks and tie remained Tory blue.
Elsewhere, Ben Bradley ran for the East Midlands mayoralty. The Conservative MP – who railed against “cultural Marxist dogma” in the National Trust – came 50,000 votes short of victory.
It’s clear – Tories who want to win really shouldn’t run as Tories.
In Rishi Sunak’s own Combined Authority, York and North Yorkshire, Labour Together, the think tank I work for, correctly polled the race. Though we slightly overstated the size of Labour’s lead, we were correct in predicting the Tory vote share on 27 per cent, and a big Labour win – David Skaith took the election by eight points.
This is symptomatic of how much trouble the Tories are in. At the 2019 General Election, the Conservatives’ secured a 29 point lead over Labour in the constituencies across this region. Now, taking an average across the new constituencies in this region, YouGov’s April MRP predicts that Labour will take 34 per cent of the vote, while the Tories will take about 31 per cent.
Or look at Street – a fiercely independent figure. According to YouGov’s April MRP, across the Westminster constituencies overlapping the West Midlands Combined Authority, the Tories poll at around 23 per cent. That contrasts with the 37.5 per cent Street won on Thursday.
The pattern is repeated in Teesside. According to this same model, if an election were held tomorrow the Conservatives would average about 21 per cent of the vote across the region. Crudely speaking, Houchen therefore outperformed his party by about 28 points.
There is however a path to survive for Conservatives. Houchen showed distancing yourself in the eyes of voters from Sunak can be a winning tactic. But, despite this, it is clear voters need answers to the greatest problems they face. In recent years the cost-of-living crisis has hit people’s pockets hard.
Labour Together recently spoke with ordinary voters and recorded their feelings on major issues in their lives. We opened every interview with a single, simple question: “What are you most concerned about in the months ahead?” The answer was near universal: the cost of day-to-day life.
If a Tory candidate can convince voters they’re not a “typical” Tory – and that means having an answer to the cost-of-living crisis – they can win. Part of Houchen’s appeal was his understanding of the voter’s experience. He condemned Truss for not comprehending the economic “storm” and made his focus driving investment, jobs and growth.
Now the reelected Teessider has shown the way to his fellow Conservatives, Labour should not be so certain its fragile poll lead can’t be slashed.
Fintan Smith is senior research and analytics associate at Labour Together