Big Four clash should prove a tight contest
CHELSEA vs LIVERPOOL
CHELSEA suffered their first dropped points of the season at Wigan last weekend which has seen Hills lengthen their title odds to a best-priced 7/4. It was another high scoring game at the DW Stadium and the average number of goals in the last three rounds of the Premier League has been an astonishing 3.6 per game.
Firms like Sporting Index have undoubtedly factored that into their spreads, but with six of Liverpool’s seven league matches producing at least four and six of Chelsea’s seven featuring at least three, there will still be plenty of goal buyers on Sunday.
Petr Cech is suspended and who can forget last season’s 4-4 draw in the Champions League, but according to Bettorlogic analysis we shouldn’t be expecting another high-scoring outcome. Cech has only been absent four times since the start of last season and even though Chelsea have been held twice in those games, they managed to keep a clean sheet in all four matches – suggesting they play with more caution without their star keeper.
Liverpool also tend to be less gung-ho when they come to west London. In 12 games between the two sides across all competitions since Roman Abramovich took control of Chelsea, last year’s 4-4 draw is the only time that more than two goals have been scored. In fact, since 2003/04, five of the six league matches between these two here have had one or no goals, whilst Liverpool saw fewer than three goals in five of their six away games against top-seven finishers last season.
The match outcome looks a difficult one to call, but Reds fans will take some encouragement from their side’s recent form at Big Four sides; they have won twice and are unbeaten in seven across all competitions in the past two campaigns. Perhaps surprisingly, Chelsea have failed to win against the Big Four at Stamford Bridge in five games across all competitions since April 30, 2008 – losing to Liverpool and Arsenal last season. However, I’m not confident Liverpool can win this, so will stick with the sell of goals and a small bet on no goalscorer.
POINTERS…
Sell total match goals at 2.4 with Sporting Index
No goalscorer at 8/1 with Boylesports
MANCHESTER UNITED vs SUNDERLAND
STEVE Bruce makes a trip back to Old Trafford for the first time as Sunderland boss to take on Sir Alex Ferguson. The Black Cats have made a decent start to the season, winning three of their four home games, albeit against weaker sides, but they have lost two of three on the road.
They were also outclassed by Chelsea at the Stadium of Light in August and Bettorlogic analysis highlights just how difficult a task they have tomorrow evening.
Man United have won an extraordinary 23 of 24 matches at Old Trafford against current non-Big Four, top-half sides since December, while Bruce has never taken a point in five visits to Old Trafford as a manager. Sunderland have only picked up one point at the Big Four since they were promoted in 2007, failing to score in all but one of those games.
They have also already lost to Burnley and Stoke this season and have been defeated in 16 of their last 20 visits to top-half finishers, 12 without scoring.
The Red Devils tend to come into their own at home against middle-third sides, winning 14 of their last 15 by two or more goals. However, it’s worth bearing in mind that in the last two contests between these teams at Old Trafford, United have won both games only 1-0 thanks to second-half goals. Sunderland tend to do better in the first-half against Big Four sides – four of their seven defeats at the Big Four since promotion have come by the draw half-time/lose full-time result.
United are unopposable in this game, but Bruce’s side may be able to get to the interval level, so the draw half-time/ United full-time result is the main bet.
POINTERS…
Draw HT / Man United FT at 4/1 on Betdaq
Sell total match goals at 3 with Sporting Index
ARSENAL vs BLACKBURN
ARSENAL have won all of their games across all competitions this season, except their two defeats in Manchester last month, and the visit of Blackburn on Sunday shouldn’t fill Arsene Wenger’s head with too much worry.
The Gunners have won 81 per cent (W17-D4-L0) of their home games against current bottom-half sides since 2007/08, 11 of those to nil, 11 winning at half-time / full-time and 12 by two goals or more.
The figures get even more frightening for Rovers fans when we go back to 2003/04, with Arsenal winning an astonishing 85 per cent (W57-D9-L1) of home games against bottom-half opposition. From the other side of the spectrum, Blackburn away from home under Sam Allardyce have gone W2-D2-L8, but have lost their last seven in a row. Of the eight defeats, seven have been without scoring, five by two or more goals and five at half-time/full-time.
Arsenal have won this fixture by at least two goals in all of the last five seasons, with four of those victories coming by at least a three goal margin. Rovers have lost their last seven away games at the Big Four and six of those have been by at least two goals.
In summary, Arsenal really should have far too much for Big Sam’s side and I expect them to win by more than Sporting Index’s two-goal supremacy prediction.
POINTERS…
Arsenal HT / Arsenal FT at 4/6 on Betdaq
Buy Arsenal supremacy at 2 with Sporting Index