Big week ahead for data on jobs and UK output
IT’S a relatively big week for economic data, with the spotlight fixed firmly on the non-farm payrolls data out from the US on Friday.
The forecast number from GFT is for a loss of 200,000 jobs in August, compared to July’s 247,000. The unemployment rate is expected to edge closer to 10 per cent, with 9.5 per cent the call, up from last month’s 9.4 per cent. ISM manufacturing – a closely watched survey of US executives’ expectations – is released today and could post a level of 50.2; anything over 50 in this index represents growth.
In the UK, manufacturing PMI data out this morning is also expected to show an increase with a reading of around 51.3.
After Friday’s push helped the FTSE to record its best two-month push since 1987 and its best summer run for a quarter of a century, the next focus will be the hurdle of the 5,000 barrier. The jobs data on Friday may provide the impetus for such a move but with holiday-shortened trading sessions this week in the UK and next week in the US, we may see some money come off the table. In the short term, GFT is forecasting the FTSE 100 to open down this morning, with the current call of 4,888 indicating a drop of 20 points from Friday’s close.
Martin Slaney is head of derivatives at online trading firm GFT Global Markets.