Boris rekindles hope of Brexit breakthrough
This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
Then again, it might not be. In the days before Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar’s meeting yesterday at a Liverpool wedding venue, talk on both sides of the Channel was of the near collapse of Brexit talks.
Some punchy Downing Street briefings spoke of the “near impossibility” of finding a deal, while senior EU figures talked about “the blame game” that was upon us.
And yet, last night, Johnson and Varadkar told reporters that their three-hour private talks were “very positive and very promising.”
Crucially, the Irish prime minister said he was now “convinced” that Johnson wants a deal. This dampens the theory, popular among the PM’s critics, that he wants a no-deal exit or at the very least wants to fight an election on the promise of a hard Brexit to come.
This morning, Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay will meet the EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier for formal talks.
This is an encouraging sign, as the two sides wouldn’t sit down together if the legwork hadn’t already been done. UK negotiators are increasingly frustrated by Barnier’s intransigence, which is why the Johnson-Varadkar breakthrough last night was so significant.
If Ireland can “see a path towards a deal” then it will be difficult for Barnier to say he doesn’t feel like walking.
Reports last night suggested that Johnson had floated the idea of hammering out a swift Free Trade Agreement between the UK and EU, rather than a fully-fledged Withdrawal Agreement.
Take care of trade first, the theory goes, then work on the details. Such an agreement could see the removal of all tariffs on goods but would still leave the issue of customs checks unresolved.
When it comes to customs — and the spectre of infrastructure at the border on Ireland — Johnson has limited political room for manoeuvre.
If he loses the support of the DUP and the more pro-Brexit Tories, he’ll need to win over Tory rebels as well as a good chunk of Labour MPs.
There are still plenty of obstacles on the “pathway” that Johnson and Varadkar spoke of last night, but they do at least seem determined to try and pick way their down it.
As Barnier likes to say, the clock is ticking, with just one week until the EU Council summit. We will know very soon indeed whether it’s deal or delay.
If a plan is hammered out, it could be a case of delay before deal — given how little time remains before the 31 October deadline.
Main image: Getty