Cameron is alienating his core voters without attracting new ones
DAVID CAMERON has a major problem. He is alienating many of the groups that traditionally supported his party and failing to reach out to any new ones.
Take the strange performance by his immigration minister James Brokenshire yesterday. He managed to blame the middle classes (a key Tory target) and business (another) for hiring immigrants, in a deeply unconvincing speech that will not have brought back a single (often blue collar or retired) Ukip supporter.
Regardless of one’s views on migration (and I’m on the libertarian side), the reason why there are lots of migrants to the UK is that the government allows it. Anybody from the EU has the right to move here, and many do (and lots of Brits move to the EU). Blaming people for doing what they are allowed to do, firms for pursuing their self-interest and the middle classes for trying to find the best workers and nannies makes no sense. If Brokenshire really wants to cut migration, he should change the law. If he doesn’t want to do that, he should stop making silly speeches attacking his own voters and demonstrating a counter-productive contempt for markets.
The Tories’ increasingly desperate language on migration (combined with the fact that the nonsensical measure that is net migration is actually rising) is backfiring royally. Even those immigrant groups that ought to vote for them are shunning them. Take Poles in the UK – that most aspirational, hard-working and risk-taking of groups. Most are ferociously anti-communist, having lived through the nightmare that is real socialism. You would expect many to support a proper Tory party.
Yet shockingly few do. A survey by New Europeans and the Federation of Poles in Great Britain published last month revealed that 37 per cent would back Labour at the European elections, 17 per cent the Lib Dems, 15 per cent the Tories and just under 10 per cent Ukip. The findings are fascinating – Ukip does surprisingly well, grabbing a certain chunk of traditionalist Polish expat opinion. But the Tories’ performance is catastrophic.
Admittedly, the sample size was very small – just 263 people – but it’s still a fascinating result. Poles and other EU citizens can vote in the European elections – but the real point is that a broad, meritocratic, well-managed and properly positioned Tory party ought to be able to appeal to British Poles. The fact that Cameron’s cannot is a disaster: the present Tory party has lost both the hard-core anti-immigration voters – they simply don’t trust him – while failing to gain the upwardly mobile, ambitious migrants.
The other big problem for the Tories is that they are also alienating the pro-business electorate as well as the much smaller pro-market, libertarian vote with these sorts of comments. These people will either not vote, back Ukip (while often disagreeing with it) or reluctantly vote Tory only because they hate and fear Ed Miliband more.
The climate of opinion in the UK is shifting ever more leftwards, courtesy of a rudderless and ideologically confused Tory party: a minister is bashing businesses for doing what they are meant to do, namely hire the best staff they can find to maximise their performance and profits; the coalition jumps on anti-business bandwagon after anti-business bandwagon; and the Labour party is committed to its most socialistic agenda since Lord Kinnock was in charge of the party.
Whatever the Tory strategy is, it isn’t working. The latest YouGov/Sun poll makes abysmal reading for Cameron. It puts the Tories on 31 per cent, Labour on 40 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent and Ukip on 13 per cent – a result which would easily give Labour a massive majority and allow Ed Miliband to govern uncontested. Most commentators expects this Labour lead to narrow ahead of the general election next year, and for Ukip to fall back down again. But if this doesn’t happen, Cameron is toast.
[email protected]
Follow me on Twitter: @allisterheath