Can English clubs mount an Investec Champions Cup charge?
If you were to list the last five English appearances in an Investec Champions Cup final you’d find Exeter there once and Saracens the other four times.
Before that it was Northampton Saints in 2011 and before that London Wasps and Leicester Tigers in 2007.
But if you were to ask me to predict which Premiership club – if any – will reach the showpiece match in Cardiff next spring I would have to say Bath or Bristol Bears.
That’s no slight on Saints and Harlequins, who represented England in the semi-finals last season, but I just don’t think the traditional powerhouses of recent times have it in them to challenge favourites Toulouse this year.
Bath on the rise
Bath kick-off this season’s action with a home tie against Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle before facing Benetton in Italy, Clermont at home and Leinster away in Dublin.
That is one almighty challenge but Johann van Graan’s side are looking good at the moment and they will pose a threat to each of their four opponents in a competition they have not won since 1998. They’re top of the English league for a reason.
Clipping at Bath’s heels domestically are Bristol Bears, who under Pat Lam have turned a disappointing campaign last season into a promising title charge this term.
Bristol begin at home to Leinster before travelling to La Rochelle. They then host Benetton and conclude against Clermont.
Albeit in a different order and with different venues, they have the same fixtures as Bath. The difference? Bristol are on a sensational run of nine consecutive away wins in the Premiership, giving them the confidence to pick up points on the road.
Big hitting rugby teams
But the reality is that I will be shocked if an English team features in the final. Besides the big hitters such as Toulouse, Leinster – who I think could struggle – and the South African sides, it is difficult to identify a team who will be able to mount a challenge for the title.
With that in mind, it could finally be a year in which a South African side wins in the competition – which would build upon the Challenge Cup won by Durban’s Sharks earlier this year at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Given they compete in the United Rugby Championship, they are used to the back and forth travel from Europe whereas their opponents aren’t.
The French stay in France and the English stay in England. A sudden trip to Pretoria or Cape Town is a shock to the system, let alone changes in climate and altitude.
It gives the South African franchises an advantage which they need to make the most of now. It was a shame last year seeing second-string teams being sent to Northampton – reasons understandable to some – to play a knock-out game.
And it is something we don’t want to see again at that stage of the competition.
It is going to be great watching the Investec Champions Cup this season but my bets are on a Top14 club coming out on top yet again.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11