Carlton’s injury makes Derby puzzle trickier
JUST over a week ago, I was standing on the heath at Newmarket watching Investec Derby favourite Carlton House strut his stuff. He looked majestic in the early morning sunshine and there was a sense of inevitability about him finally landing the world’s premier race for his most famous of owners.
Yet, the Queen’s dream became a virtual nightmare earlier in the week when her Derby charge injured his near-fore in a routine gallop. His participation in tomorrow’s race has been in doubt ever since and even though he came through yesterday’s canter, his final preparation has hardly been ideal.
A race he once seemingly had at his mercy has been blown wide open as Betdaq punters have been scrambling to lay Sir Michael Stoute’s runner. He has traded at a high of 5.5 on the exchange over the last few days, and even though things have steadied somewhat, if he does line up tomorrow, he may not do so as favourite.
French raider Pour Moi has been well touted as a potential winner and boutique high-roller bookmaker Star Sports yesterday were forced to cut him once again from 4/1 into 7/2 after heavy support. Yet, he is incredibly short now for a horse that still has it all to prove on form.
Aidan O’Brien has sent over 35 runners since he last won this race in 2002 and saddles four more tomorrow in an attempt to win it for a third time. His team is headed up by the Kieren Fallon-ridden Recital who is hugely talented but also quirky. He has the most awkward of head carriages and I’m not a fan of the way he seems to hang to his left. Epsom will either make or break him and he is bound to play a part in the finish if ridden with more constraint by his pilot.
He can be backed at a best-priced 5/1 with William Hill and that may look a massive price just after 4pm tomorrow. However, it would be unwise to rule out his stablemate Seville who travelled supremely well in the Dante before being seen off by Carlton House. The son of Galileo (who won this race exactly a decade ago) will strip fitter and looks an easier ride than the supposedly better fancied Recital.
Strangely, I’m quite sweet on the chances of arguably the least fancied of the Ballydoyle contingent TREASURE BEACH. He really caught my eye at Chester and I like the fact that he is straightforward, genuine and brave. He will stay the Derby trip and he showed last time that he won’t mind battling through a tight gap and quickening when asked.
Whether he has the class to win the Derby is another matter altogether, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make the frame.
He can be backed each-way at 20/1 with William Hill without Carlton House and I’m waiting for a firm to price up the ‘Ballydoyle Derby’. He would certainly be interesting at a decent price in a match against his stablemates.
You can get my thoughts on all of tomorrow’s races in Morning Wire’s exclusive 20-page Saturday Derby edition and follow me live from Epsom Downs on Twitter @BillEsdaile.