UK PMIs: Service sector returns to growth as lockdown end nears April 7, 2021 The UK’s services industry returned to growth in March, with business activity, new orders and unemployment all rebounding from the previous month. New data released this morning shows that the UK’s impressive vaccine rollout had seen the economy recover at a faster rate than initially expected. The IHS Markit/Cips purchasing managers (PMI) index for services registered 56.3 [...]
IMF raises growth forecast for UK and global economy after vaccine successes April 6, 2021 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for UK economic growth, which is set to outpace the euro zone this year after its slump in 2020, but is unlikely to regain its pre-pandemic size until 2022. The IMF said the economy will grow by 5.3 per cent in 2021, up from a previous [...]
Will ESG turn Bitcoin into a digital ‘stranded asset’ or monetary MySpace? (Part I) April 6, 2021 | City Talk In this first instalment of a two-part piece, Ben Ashby, Derek Usher and Gerard Fox explain why environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors will undermine Bitcoin’s eye-catching rise, here focusing on the ‘E’. We have many economic reasons for believing that ‘first-generation’ crypto assets will fail to displace either ‘conventional’ money or traditional safe assets [...]
Mid-sized firms set for investment and hiring spree as UK exits lockdown April 5, 2021 Mid-sized firms set to splurge on investment and new hires as UK exits lockdown
Sterling steadies after strongest quarter against the euro since 2015 April 1, 2021 The pound was little changed against the dollar on Thursday and a touch lower against the euro, but traders remained optimistic about its longer-term prospects. Sterling had its strongest quarter against the euro since 2015 in the first three months of the year, gaining around 4.8 per cent. UK manufacturing activity grew sharply in March [...]
Bernoulli’s Prisoner’s Dilemma: applying the scenario to modern markets March 30, 2021 | City Talk In 1738, the Swiss mathematician and physicist Daniel Bernoulli proposed a simple thought experiment: “A rich prisoner who possesses two thousand ducats but needs two thousand ducats more to repurchase his freedom, will place a higher value on a gain of two thousand ducats than does another man with less money than he.” Let’s place [...]
Frugal February: Brits paid off £1.2bn in credit card debt and overdrafts in final month of full lockdown March 29, 2021 Frugal February: Brits paid off £1.2bn in credit card debt and overdrafts in final month of full lockdown
Covid: UK bank lending surged £29.3bn since March, surpassing EU March 29, 2021 UK bank lending has surged by eight per cent to keep businesses afloat since the pandemic began, surpassing EU lending, according to a new study by UHY released this morning. Banks have offered around £29.3bn in businesses loans over the past year, as lending in the EU increased by an average of 5.3 per cent. [...]
BoE urges banks to keep lending as government schemes come to an end March 26, 2021 The Bank of England has urged banks to continue lending through the recovery as the government starts to wind down its coronavirus loan schemes. While the vaccine rollout has boosted confidence the Financial Policy Committee (FPC), which looks at the risks facing the system, has warned SMEs will need to finance cash-flow deficits this year [...]
Covid-19, a year on: the need for a more diverse UK economy March 26, 2021 In this series, Morning Wire looks back at the last year of the pandemic and Covid restrictions and takes stock of its impact on industries and issues at the heart of British society. Read more: Read the full Covid-19, a year on series here. The UK’s economy was hit by a 10 per cent drop in GDP [...]