UK government deficit rises more than expected and public sector borrowing continues to grow December 21, 2016 The UK government’s debt and budget deficit both rose in November, as borrowing came in higher than expected. The deficit rose to £12.6bn, with borrowing to fund everyday government spending accounting for £9.9bn, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. The government now owes the private sector almost £1.66 trillion, an increase of [...]
Expecting RBS profits is living in a fool’s paradise December 21, 2016 In just 10 days from now you will likely find yourself celebrating the end of 2016, and the start of a new year. If your headache the following morning isn’t bad enough, consider this – a decade earlier, on 1 January 2007, a share in the Royal Bank of Scotland was worth £55.80. Today, its [...]
The UK economy doesn’t need an industrial strategy – it needs liberation December 21, 2016 There seems to be widespread agreement within the political class that the British economy is in need of “rebalancing.” It is argued that too big a fraction of UK output is generated by the services sector, and too little by manufacturing. Changing the sectoral composition of British GDP is an explicit objective of Theresa May’s [...]
The death of cash, the rise of trade unions and other eclectic 2017 predictions December 21, 2016 It’s certainly been an eventful year. But rather than dwell on the past, what sort of things can we expect in 2017? Here are a few eclectic predictions. Sweden may become the world’s first cashless economy. Notes and coins are already fast disappearing as a means of payment, and retailers are legally entitled to refuse to [...]
Save the date: the last Spring Budget will be on 8 March 2017 – before Article 50 December 20, 2016 The next UK government Budget announcement will take place on 8 March 2017, before the government triggers Article 50, the Treasury has announced. Prime Minister Theresa May has outlined plans to notify the EU of the UK's intention to leave by the end of March 2017. Official negotiations with the EU will then commence. Philip [...]
Donald Trump could be the “wildcard” to upset Asia growth in 2017 says Goldman Sachs December 20, 2016 Donald Trump could be a “wildcard” for economic growth across Asia in the coming year, according to Goldman Sachs. The President-elect’s apparent protectionist policies could harm nations relying on exports to the US, but his likely fiscal stimulus is set to drive US growth higher, the bank says in its 2017 macroeconomic outlook. “For a [...]
Single Market access is top priority for EU businesses after UK leaves EU, while 58 per cent see Brexit as a threat December 20, 2016 Access to the UK as part of the Single Market is the highest priority for European businesses in the upcoming Brexit negotiations, a new survey says. Single Market access is the most important factor for 29 per cent of EU businesses with UK operations, according to a poll of 700 business leaders by accountancy firm [...]
The Nikkei 225 hits 2016 highs and the yen weakens as the Bank of Japan holds interest rates steady December 20, 2016 The Nikkei 225 reached its highest point for over a year and the yen fell against the dollar as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirmed that it would hold interest rates as widely expected. The BoJ’s Policy Board maintained its stance of negative interest rates, keeping the rate at minus 0.1 per cent. It also [...]
2016: A post-mortem of the year the UK’s “economic experts” failed December 20, 2016 The end of a calendar year and the start of a new one provides a chance for reflection. For the UK’s economic establishment, particularly forecasters, introspection is more appropriate. Complete with their New Keynesian models, most have been proven utterly wrong so far that voting for Brexit would lead to a short-term downturn. As the most [...]
How to make the UK an innovation nation December 20, 2016 Prime Minister Theresa May intends to start 2017 with a flurry of policy announcements including apparently unveiling what Nick Timothy, her co-chief of staff, called “a more long-term and strategic approach to economic and industrial policy” in an article he published before he re-joined government. Industrial strategy is back. This is very welcome. But how does [...]