Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macroeconomics November 22, 2016 The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, was on good form last week when he appeared at the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. Asked what “forward guidance” meant, he answered smoothly: “The thing about forward guidance is that it is guidance that is forward. Which is not to say it is meant [...]
Massive investment in education is the ultimate fiscal stimulus for Brexit Britain November 22, 2016 We learnt of three priorities for government spending recently: roads, railways and flood defences. As an economist, I take a slightly different view of what’s needed to drive the UK economy at this pivotal time. To quote a former politician, my three priorities for public infrastructure in today’s Autumn Statement would be “education, education, education.” In [...]
As Trump prepares to dump the TPP Pacific free trade deal, is globalisation going into reverse? November 22, 2016 Dr Madsen Pirie, founder and president of the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes. It looks very much as if globalisation has reached its high water mark and may be slipping back. Donald Trump's pledge to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal comes hot on the heels of the declaration by many involved that the [...]
Consumer confidence rises in Eurozone in November, beating the wider European Union November 22, 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence has improved sharply in November, shrugging off any aftermath from the UK’s decision to vote to leave the European Union to beat forecasts. The indicator improved by 1.9 points to -6.1, according to the European Commission. This is well above the long-term average below -12, and above forecasts which had predicted confidence [...]
Public sector borrowing: These five charts tell us everything we need to know about the state of the UK’s finances November 22, 2016 Chancellor Philip Hammond got a pleasant surprise from the Office for National Statistics today, after figures showed the UK's public borrowing has actually fallen. But it's likely this is a temporary respite for the UK's borrowing, which is expected to rise this year. These five charts put today's borrowing figures in perspective: Read more: The [...]
Manufacturers did better than expected in November, despite Brexit fears November 22, 2016 Manufacturers have posted their best month for orders since before the UK's vote to quit the European Union, beating economist expectations, and confounding Brexit slowdown fears. Optimism for coming months also increased with expectations for production over the next quarter reaching their highest level since February 2015. For November, manufacturing order books improved but export order books and output [...]
Every little helps: Government borrowing fell by £5.6bn in October November 22, 2016 Good news for Philip Hammond ahead of tomorrow's Autumn Statement: government borrowing fell £5.6bn in October, official figures showed today – putting the UK's total borrowing at £48.6bn in the year to the end of October. Excluding public sector banks, the figure fell £1.6bn to £4.8bn, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. The [...]
Oil price rally pushes stocks up around the world as US indices hit multiple record highs November 22, 2016 The continuing rally in oil prices led stocks around the world higher as a succession US indices hit all-time record highs at the close. Oil prices are rising on expectations that oil production cartel Opec will cut production at the end of the month. It meets on 30 November. The US oil benchmark, West Texas [...]
The Brexit vote has wiped £26,000 off your wealth – and done away with 406,000 UK millionaires November 22, 2016 The Brexit vote has wiped $1.5 trillion (£1.2 trillion) off the wealth of UK households this year, a report published today has suggested. The Global Wealth Report, by the Credit Suisse Research Institute, found the wealth of each adult in the UK has fallen by $33,000, or £26,442, since the beginning of June. That puts [...]
Autumn Statement 2016: Looming dangers demand an urgent rethink of monetary policy in Britain November 21, 2016 A widely-held, but erroneous, view is that low interest rates act invariably as a welcome, unambiguous boost to business, consumers and the economy. Nonetheless, it seems almost incredible that the Bank of England has maintained an emergency rate since March 2009. The granting of (notional) independence over monetary policy to this institution has allowed politicians [...]