Autumn Statement 2016: Could higher borrowing costs upset Philip Hammond’s plans for an infrastructure spending spree? October 17, 2016 Interest rates for the UK government are rising at one of their fastest rates in nearly two decades as chancellor Philip Hammond prepares to unleash a multi-billion pound spending spree in his first Autumn Statement in five weeks' time. Borrowing costs for Hammond, as measured by the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond, have surged in [...]
Markets riding high for now, but vulnerable to “small trigger”, warns Citi October 17, 2016 Equity markets could be a “small trigger” away from crashing down from current near-high levels, a note from Citigroup has warned today. Researchers argued that the world is currently not an uncertain place, but that with certainty comes complacency, “and with complacency comes risk”. Read more: Will the pound's weakness continue to drive the FTSE 100? [...]
Eyes on Draghi as Eurozone inflation hits two year high October 17, 2016 Inflation across the Eurozone hit a two-year high in September in more good news for Mario Draghi in his war with stagnant prices and sclerotic growth. Prices rose by 0.4 per cent over the 12 months to September, Eurostat said this morning, as measured on the consumer prices index (CPI). That was in line with [...]
EY Item Club: UK economy is surprisingly resilient – but faces a “prolonged period of weaker growth” October 17, 2016 The British economy will be hit by a "prolonged period of weaker growth" as the impact of the EU referendum begins to be felt – but will continue to be resilient, an influential forecaster has predicted. The EY Item Club, which uses the same forecasting model as the Treasury, said GDP growth will hit 1.9 [...]
Ben Broadbent: Pound fall has been a “shock absorber” October 17, 2016 The decline in sterling after the UK voted to leave the European Union has acted as a shock absorber for the economy, according to Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent. "Having a flexible currency is an extremely important thing, especially in an environment when your economy faces shocks that are different from your trading [...]
Why Donald Trump should be closely watching the Mexican peso October 17, 2016 As the odds of a Donald Trump victory lengthened last week, few will have welcomed the news as much as Mexico. The Mexican peso, which fell by 12 per cent in the first nine months of this year, has bounced back as market fears of a Trump win calmed. “The peso has become a bellwether [...]
Downing Street plays down talk of Mark Carney tension October 17, 2016 Downing Street appears keen to play down perceived tension between the Prime Minister and governor of the Bank of England, with allies saying he is "highly regarded". The Bank’s Mark Carney said in a speech on Friday that he would not be told what to do by politicians, adding: Read more: May you leave us [...]
Theresa May is angering both Leavers and Remainers October 17, 2016 Theresa May’s approach to Brexit has proved immensely frustrating to those who found themselves on the losing side of the referendum debate. This frustration, based at first on the idea that the government lacked any kind of plan, is turning into despair at the realisation that the PM does not intend to give any ground [...]
As Mark Carney warns of troubles ahead, should the Bank of England tolerate rising inflation? October 17, 2016 Scott Corfe, associate director at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, says Yes. Inflation will rise next year, and it is likely to rise sharply as sterling’s remarkable decline feeds through into higher import costs. CPI inflation of 3 per cent is well within the realms of possibility and inflation of 4 per cent – [...]
London Remainers drag down consumer confidence in the capital October 17, 2016 London consumers are feeling less confident than the rest of the UK, data out today shows. Confidence fell in London during the third quarter despite climbing to a five-year high across the rest of the country, according to the latest survey from accountancy giant Deloitte. Consumer sentiment in the capital fell by three percentage points over [...]