Steady as she goes from Spreadsheet Phil November 24, 2016 It can't have been easy for George Osborne to watch his successor abolish one of the former chancellor’s favourite political devices. Philip Hammond ended his sober assessment of the public finances yesterday by declaring that the Autumn Statement will be no more. “No other economy makes hundreds of tax changes twice a year, and neither should [...]
Our timid chancellor fell for the discredited groupthink that Brexit is bad for growth November 23, 2016 The latest GDP forecasts from the OBR made me laugh. If the Autumn Statement was a court of law, and the OBR was in the dock, it wouldn’t be long until the prosecuting barrister got the OBR to admit that its numbers were an assumption in the short term and a guess thereafter. The downward [...]
Philip Hammond has gifted Britain a third decade of gross fiscal irresponsibility November 23, 2016 If it ever truly began, it really does look like the era of austerity is over. After the savage cuts of George Osborne’s days, when current spending was slashed by an eye watering 0.2 per cent, Philip Hammond has decided enough is enough. The borrowing forecasts from yesterday’s Autumn Statement were diabolical. A surplus is now not [...]
The chancellor’s new investments should boost productivity – but the next few years are going to be tough November 23, 2016 Philip Hammond kept the nation in suspense as to the new government’s priorities for the economy until the Autumn Statement, and generally it was worth the wait. The chancellor proved a bigger spender, focusing on one of the fundamental challenges facing the UK economy beyond Brexit – productivity. If the UK is to forge a [...]
Was the Autumn Statement a missed opportunity to tackle Britain’s housing crisis? November 23, 2016 Jeremy Leaf, a former RICS residential chairman, says Yes. As expected, the chancellor’s speech contained no reversal of stamp duty changes, withdrawal of mortgage interest relief proposals for landlords, or assistance for downsizers. This was despite the potential benefits for the wider economy of lower taxes, greater job mobility and more housebuilding. No measures were [...]
How the chancellor can unlock more private capital for infrastructure November 23, 2016 Chancellor Philip Hammond is widely expected to outline a more flexible approach to deficit reduction when he delivers his first Autumn Statement today. Flexibility seems wise, given the scale of uncertainty as the UK prepares to leave the EU. Ministers have identified investment in infrastructure as a means to boost the UK’s competitive standing. In [...]
From bunnies to Brexit – the government’s fiscal events are about to get a lot more serious November 23, 2016 Help to Buy, the National Living Wage, the New Isa, the Lifetime Isa, a tax on fizzy drinks – the list of George Osborne’s fiscal innovations was, until his departure from Downing Street, seemingly endless. During his time as chancellor, Osborne was especially keen to pull at least one rabbit out of his metaphorical hat [...]
Why Britain remains the best place in the world to run an international business November 22, 2016 Like many momentous occasions in recent history, we will all remember where we were on 24 June when the result of the UK’s EU referendum became clear. For me, it was the arrival lounge of Terminal 5 at Heathrow. I was returning from four days in our US business where our team were locked in [...]
Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macroeconomics November 22, 2016 The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, was on good form last week when he appeared at the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. Asked what “forward guidance” meant, he answered smoothly: “The thing about forward guidance is that it is guidance that is forward. Which is not to say it is meant [...]
Massive investment in education is the ultimate fiscal stimulus for Brexit Britain November 22, 2016 We learnt of three priorities for government spending recently: roads, railways and flood defences. As an economist, I take a slightly different view of what’s needed to drive the UK economy at this pivotal time. To quote a former politician, my three priorities for public infrastructure in today’s Autumn Statement would be “education, education, education.” In [...]