Even domestic banks will suffer if Britain pursues a hard Brexit September 27, 2016 During his farewell speech to the Ukip party conference, Nigel Farage identified his three key objectives for the government’s impending Brexit negotiation. In addition to his demand that the UK reclaim control of its fishing waters, Farage called for the country to leave the Single Market and for the reintroduction of blue British passports. While [...]
Is Donald Trump right that the US economy is in “a big, fat, ugly bubble”? September 27, 2016 Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital, says Yes. US financial markets are in a bubble, courtesy of the Fed’s long-running ultra-easy monetary policy. Equity markets are at record highs and at extreme valuations, even though US corporates are still in a profits recession. Credit markets are exhibiting 2007-style excess leverage and commercial real estate [...]
Too many young people are wasting their time by studying poor degrees at university September 27, 2016 It’s an exciting time of the year for many young people, with some setting off to university for the first time and others starting to polish their applications for next year. Good news if you have been accepted to read economics at Cambridge, say, or business studies at Oxford. A survey by the Sunday Times shows [...]
Second chance for BHS? An open letter to David Anderson, managing director of the newly online-only retailer September 27, 2016 Dear David Anderson, Whether it’s BHS or Woolworths, we all love a good phoenix from the ashes story, especially when it involves a great British brand. News that BHS is to be reincarnated online has been met with a cautious welcome. Cautious because the challenges ahead are considerable: in addition to the reputational damage the [...]
Clinton and Trump’s dismal debate performances laid bare America’s perilous divisions September 27, 2016 “I have a son who’s 10, he’s so good with computers.” – Donald Trump, when asked about US cybersecurity weaknesses (The American Republic is) “under siege by a moron.” – Bruce Springsteen, when asked about Donald Trump Well, it was just as weird as had been anticipated. The estimated 100m Americans who tuned into the [...]
The great fall of China: If the Chinese economy sinks, it’ll take Britain down with it September 27, 2016 Forget the chatter around the economic risk posed by Brexit, for a more dangerous spectre looms: China’s massive debt pile and the potential for a painful slowdown in the Asian powerhouse. Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ken Rogoff, said yesterday that a slowdown in China is the greatest threat to the global [...]
City Giving Day: Community investment is a win-win for business and society September 27, 2016 UBS has operated a community investment programme in London for over 30 years. Never has it, and others like it, been more relevant. The relevance is driven by need; by the state of the UK and indeed of the world today; and by the now demonstrable proposition that companies undertaking such activity benefit both themselves [...]
Britain’s socialists aren’t quite as “progressive” as they think they are September 26, 2016 It’s as predictable as the so-called “rabbit out of the hat”. Twice each year (three times when George Osborne felt an “emergency” coming on), the days after a Budget or Autumn Statement are littered with left-wing MPs, armed with their Institute for Fiscal Studies bar chart, denouncing the package of policies as “regressive”. “The tax and [...]
What is the worst policy to come out of the Labour party conference so far? September 26, 2016 Dan Lewis, senior infrastructure policy adviser to the Institute of Directors, says the ban on fracking. Fracking has been transformative for the United States, leading to reshoring of manufacturing, bringing down energy prices, reducing emissions, creating jobs and raising taxes. No serious US politician seeking power wants to reverse that. And in this country, it will [...]
Leave the EU’s Customs Union for a serious trade and aid policy September 26, 2016 It will not be enough to leave the EU’s Single Market. We need to leave its highly corrosive Customs Union too. Indeed, as a new report from Global Britain into the links between international trade and development aid shows, leaving the Customs Union is a prerequisite for making globalisation of benefit to the whole world – [...]