Chasing global uncertainties with an active toddler is not easy
You know you are a “Brexhausted” mother when you spend your day (and sometimes nights) chasing Brexit madness and the rest of the time chasing a super-active toddler.
At least my toddler is starting to understand when I say “I think we are done for today, it’s time to go to bed”.
While that’s been the state of life for the past year or so, there is no clarity on when and how things will start to get better in terms of Brexit.
For the UK, the last two-and-half years have been quite a dramatic time in British politics. But this phase of uncertainty is not just limited to the UK.
At a time when business leaders are heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, the world is filled with uncertainty.
The so-called developed nations of the world are embroiled in controversies, political instability, and foresee an ambiguous path ahead.
The economic policy uncertainty index – which is a gauge of uncertainty across the world – hit record highs in December amid worries over the US government shutdown, the China-US trade war, and Brexit negotiations, according to a report from Deutsche Bank.
The index, which goes back to January 1997, is a measure of global uncertainty calculated by compiling data from 143 countries, and is associated with policy-related uncertainty, stock market volatility, risk, and lower GDP growth.
But this uncertainty is not just limited to the developed world.
In fact, the index found that the level of uncertainty is significantly higher in developing countries.
The so-called Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations are currently in a flux, with each country facing a unique situation.
While Brazil’s economy is slowly coming to terms with a new populist President, Russia is still dealing with sanctions, as well as its dependence on oil.
India is gearing up for a General Election this year, with concerns that the current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is losing ground. Meanwhile, weak data from China is fuelling fears of a slowdown in one of the world’s largest economies.
Markets hate uncertainty of any kind, and this has been quite evident in the stock market sell-off in the final quarter of 2018.
But the uncertainty is far from over, and while a bit of optimism over US-China trade talks may have driven stocks slightly higher, larger concerns continue to linger.
For now, I will let markets chase a bunch of uncertainties in 2019, while I continue to run after my super-active toddler.