Chelsea hold all the aces as City try to find a spark
MANCHESTER CITY vs CHELSEA
TOMORROW, 5.30PM ESPN
THE pressure continues to mount on Mark Hughes after a record-equalling seventh straight Premier League draw against Hull last weekend. Man City did beat Arsenal’s youth team in the Carling Cup on Wednesday night and they have still only lost one Premier League game this season, but the way Chelsea brushed Arsenal aside on Sunday will be a major worry for everyone at Eastlands.
City have a terrible record against Chelsea – losing 17 of 20 league matches since 1994/95 and nine of 10 at home during that period. They have also managed to score just two goals against them, conceding 29 in the last 14 league meetings. Their record at Eastlands against the Big Four since 2008 also isn’t great – suffering five defeats in seven.
Chelsea have been commanding in this type of fixture recently and since October 2007 they have won 29 of 36 matches at non-Big Four sides, losing just three times and keeping 25 clean sheets. They last tasted defeat against top-half, non-Big Four opposition at Villa Park in October, but that was their first loss at such an outfit in the past four seasons. In 20 games against similar opposition during the same period they have won 16 and drawn three.
An away win at a shade of odds-on looks too good to turn down, but there is also some value in backing the HT draw / FT Chelsea double result. Although the west London club have bossed recent encounters between these two, the games have tended to be close. City’s first half record in their last seven at home against Chelsea is W1-D4-L2, while their second half figures are W0-D2-L5. In their last 10 home games against Chelsea they have suffered seven defeats having been drawing at half-time.
Games between these two have generally been low scoring and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Carlo Ancelotti’s nick a 1-0 win. In five of the six league meetings in Manchester, only one game has produced more than two goals and four of them have seen just one. Selling goals at 2.3 with Sporting Index is definitely the best spread bet in this contest.
The Centaur Academy is now open in the City and is taking bookings for its courses in how to profit from trading on the sports exchanges. Log onto www.centauracademy.com or call 020 7877 5050 for more details.
POINTERS…
Chelsea to win at 10/11 on Betdaq
Draw HT / Chelsea FT at 4/1 on Betdaq
Sell total match goals at 2.7 with Sporting Index
PORTSMOUTH vs BURNLEY
Tomorrow, 12.45pm Sky Sports 1
THIS fixture wouldn’t have stood out at the start of the season, but thanks to both sides’ propensity to score and concede plenty of goals, we could be set for a lunchtime thriller at Fratton Park.
Portsmouth are still languishing at the foot of the table with just seven points, but if Avram Grant could have wished for a team to play against at home this weekend it would be Burnley.
Owen Coyle’s side have been a revelation due to their tremendous form at Turf Moor – only Chelsea and Man United have earned more points at home. However, they have been every bit as bad on their travels, picking up a solitary point from their recent trip to Man City and conceding a worrying 25 goals in seven games.
The outright market is difficult in this one, but Pompey were unlucky to lose to Man United by such a conclusive margin last weekend and they may be able to register their first win under Grant. Since 2007/08, bottom-six sides have won 60 per cent of home matches against promoted sides currently in the bottom-half (W21-D7-L7). West Ham’s 5-3 win over Burnley on Saturday provides a good line of form for this game and that was the seventh victory in 10 games since 2006/07 for bottom-six, non promoted teams, hosting bottom-half, non bottom-six promoted sides.
It’s difficult to be overly confident about a Pompey victory, so the main bet has to be on the total goals market in this one. Burnley have been haemorrhaging goals on the road this season and have now conceded 20 in their last five. There have been a total of 27 goals in those five games at an average of 5.4 per game, while there have been 22 goals in Pompey’s last five home games across all competitions, at an average of 4.4 per game.
POINTERS…
Buy total match goals at 2.9? with Sporting Index
Portsmouth to win at 5/6 with Hills
EVERTON vs TOTTENHAM
Sunday, 4.00pm Sky Sports 1
THIRD-place Tottenham travel to Goodison Park hoping to compound more misery on David Moyes, whose side have lost three straight league games. Everton’s squad has been ravaged by injury in recent weeks, but they have a top quality manager who will be desperate to get things back on track quickly.
Although the Toffees have been struggling of late, they are formidable opponents on home soil and are unbeaten in seven games hosting non-Big Four sides since May (W3-D4-L0). Games between these two are often close and four of the last five on Merseyside have been level at the break. Everton have also been drawing at half-time in five of their last seven at home against non-Big Four outfits, while the same is true in nine of Spurs’ last 17 away at non-Big Four opposition.
The match outcome is not clear cut as Spurs have won five and lost just once away in 10 games at non-Big Four opponents since February. Moyes will be desperate not to lose a fourth straight game and with the last two between these at Goodison ending in a stalemate, the draw at 12/5 with Boylesports looks the best option.
Goals can normally be expected whenever Harry Redknapp’s side come to town – both teams have scored in nine of their last 10 away at Big Four opponents, as have five of Everton’s last eight matches at home against top half, non-Big Four opponents.
POINTERS…
Match to be drawn at 12/5 with Boylesports
HT draw / FT draw at 9/2 with Hills
1-1 correct scoreline at 6/1 with Boylesports