Chequers Brexit meeting to result in ‘softest of hard Brexits’ as full Cabinet tips balance away from pro-Leave ministers
Next week's crunch meeting to thrash out a final position on the customs union is likely to result in "the softest of hard Brexits" after the balance has been shifted away from favouring government's most ardent Brexiters.
While it had originally been planned as a two-day overnight stay at the grace-and-favour Buckinghamshire mansion, the first day has been scrapped and instead of the white paper being signed off by the 11-strong Brexit war Cabinet, it will now be decided by the full Cabinet of 30 on Friday.
That means "the four Brexiters" – Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Michael Gove and David Davis, as well as recent converts Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson – will be balanced out by others such as justice secretary David Gauke and housing secretary James Brokenshire.
They are expected to back chancellor Philip Hammond and business secretary Greg Clark in pushing for a softer approach than otherwise might have emerged.
However Theresa May's red lines as set out in her Mansion House speech – such as leaving the Single Market and customs union – are still expected to remain intact.
One source told Morning Wire they anticipated the away-day to result in "the softest possible hard Brexit".
"That is where we are on this – things are still very finely balanced," he added.
Another insider said: "The PM will have a way to bring people around to what she always does, which is the middle ground.
"That is very much her style – and actually I think history will judge it as a good thing."
Some of the more pro-Remain ministers, including Clark, are expected to make the case for the Single Market for goods, although that is seen as an "extreme" position. It is thought this has already been ruled out by the Prime Minister over concerns it would bind the government's hands on future trade deals.
The so-called Max fac (maximum facilitation) customs proposal is now seen as the only viable customs union option but sources suggested that did not narrow things down.
"It'll be a form of max fac [but] there are many variations, some new ideas being talked about," one said.
There will be "concessions" made to win sticklers over "and then she will have found a way through it – or at least a way to fight on to another day," said another.