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Thursday 03 October 2013 7:46 am

Citi upgrades Blackberry despite uncertainty over Fairfax buyout and declining market share

By: Peter Spence

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Someone out there is still optimistic about Blackberry – just not about the takeover planned by Fairfax Financial Holdings. Citi analyst Jim Suva has raised his price target for Blackberry stock to $9, and the rating of the tech company is now "neutral" from "sell".

That same analyst has cut his net loss estimate for the fiscal year ending February to $0.91 from $0.93, and for the following year from $0.79 to $0.70.

Suva is less confident about the buyout offer which was announced last month. Blackberry have accepted a tentative offer from Fairfax of $4.7bn (£2.9bn), but Reuters reports that Cerberus Capital Management could be considering a rival offer. At its peak Blackberry was valued at more than 16 times that $9 offer.

The note also raises concerns about the erosion of Blackberry's smartphone platform.

Our Long term thesis of market share losses amidst BYOD threat has largely played out … as the stock is now down -75%, -18% and -32% in 2011, 2012 & 2013, (vs the market up flat, +13% & +19%) respectively.

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