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DEBATE: Will the European Research Group’s three legal tests help pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal?

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Will the European Research Group’s three legal tests help pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal?

Olivia Utley, deputy editor at TheArticle, says YES.

The three tests proposed by the European Research Group (ESG) have been rejected by the European Union. But, although they are now off the table, the very fact that they were mooted will help Theresa May get her deal passed.

Up until now, the ERG has managed to present itself as an entirely unified group. But that’s not the full story.

The ERG is, in fact, a loose collection of MPs, with subtly differing ideas on what sort of Brexit is acceptable.

The hardcore, noisy ringleaders of the group – Peter Bone, Bill Cash, Jacob Rees-Mogg, etc – will have insisted on the tests, but the quieter, more practical members will have been sceptical about such a blunt tool from the beginning.

Now that the tests have been rejected, the ERG is bound to split.

A few refuseniks will continue to hold out for a pure Brexit, but the vast majority of the so-called group will put their weight behind the Prime Minister’s deal, helping to get it over the final line.

Jayne Adye, director of Get Britain Out, says NO.

The ERG’s three Brexit tests take a direct approach to the Irish backstop issue alone, when in reality there are several problems with the Prime Minister’s withdrawal agreement, as we identify here.

Many of these are far more serious. They include a commitment to a level playing field policy with the EU, which will restrict the ability of the UK to set its own standards of regulation and our own tax policy. It’s a betrayal of the vote to leave.

Many MPs understand this and rightly believe, as May has said herself, that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

These tests might convince the ERG to back the agreement, but that does not guarantee victory. The Conservative Party is not run by the ERG. Remain-backing MPs know that by voting against no deal and then for a delay, they can plan to prevent Brexit, which defies the democratic will of the great British public.

Assurances about the backstop will not solve Mrs May’s Brexit dilemma, or guarantee a good trade deal.