Donald Trump is deluded, but so are we
On the public finances, energy and national security, comforting rhetoric has concealed policy drift that has undermined the status quo it purported to uphold, says Alys Denby
Donald Trump’s claims of an imminent end to the war in Iran may bear only a tenuous connection to reality – like his on/off tariff threats – but he can move markets just by posting them on social media. For decades, successive Prime Ministers have operated in a different, but no less deceptive way. They have kept to the bland language of rules, responsibilities and vague assertions of values. Britain, we believe, is a wealthy, fair, nature-loving and strong country. But this comforting rhetoric concealed policy drift that has undermined the status quo it purports to uphold. In other words, Trump’s words can change the facts, whether they are true or not. But we have also been lying to each other – and the consequences are just as real.
The public finances are where this dynamic is most clearly demonstrated. The architecture of forecasts, audits and fiscal rules enables Chancellors to show that their spreadsheets add up for the next five years. That fiction convinced us we could afford to borrow £300bn to pay for Covid followed by £40bn to pay everyone’s energy bills. The truth is, with public sector net debt at 93.1 per cent of GDP and huge unfunded liabilities like the pensions triple lock, present spending is completely unsustainable. As our editor has observed, we are a poor country acting like a rich one.
Decline
On energy, our governments have told us that we must go further and faster in pursuit of net zero than any comparable nation. So we import gas, solar panels and electric cars from our rivals while degrading our own industrial base and leaving our native natural resources in the ground. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine exposed the folly of energy dependency well before the current crisis. Yet we have still done too little to ramp up nuclear power or end the self-harming moratorium on new North Sea oil and gas licences.
Our national security, too, is a dangerous mirage. We have spent the peace dividend running down our armed forces and wasting billions on juddering tanks that leave soldiers vomiting. We have ignored obvious threats – either geographic, like the Strait of Hormuz, or geopolitical like the rise of China and Russia. Now, far from the major power we think we are, our army is so denuded it could “seize a small market town on a good day,” according to General Sir Richard Barrons. It can hardly be much comfort to Morning Wire readers living in the commuter belt to learn that, should we ever face invasion, just one of your communities will be saved – perhaps Amersham?
Yet who will we recruit to bolster our defences? Young men are in crisis, with 13.3 per cent of 16-24 year-olds not in employment, education or training. This decline in economic circumstances also contributes to insidious cultural trends like the ‘manosphere’ and the rise of populist ideas like wealth taxes. Numerous surveys find we are experiencing a decline in national pride and willingness to serve, especially among young people.
We have lived too long under illusions about the world, but less forgivably about ourselves. We will not be able to overcome the challenges we face until we snap out of our delusion.
Alys Denby is opinion editor of Morning Wire