Don’t believe the Scottish independence hype — I’d bet on Johnson’s tortoise to beat Sturgeon’s hare
For his first significant political event outside the Westminster bubble, timed for his one-year anniversary of becoming Prime Minister, Boris Johnson chose to go to Scotland.
The significance of that choice cannot be overestimated.
Politics is as unpredictable as ever, and despite chancellor Rishi Sunak hosing Scotland with the billions confected by the Bank of England for pandemic relief, polls are showing majority support for independence.
To add salt to the wound, the Prime Minister’s popularity rating in Scotland slumped recently to minus 39, while first minister Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity has risen to plus 74.
In response, the Prime Minister has told his cabinet to make more visits to Scotland. Reports of sudden government panic are wide off the mark — Johnson had already decided back in February to put Michael Gove in charge of improving the coordination of UK policies and communications across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland before the pandemic arrived, with Covid-19 postponing those plans. But it is true that a renewed focus on Scotland is underway — expect more initiatives to become visible after what remains of the summer holidays.
So has the Prime Minister lost Scotland even before he got on his flight north?
I remain unconvinced. In these strange and challenging times, Scotland has enjoyed generous financial support from Westminster (which has largely been taken for granted) and has convinced itself of the myth that Nicola Sturgeon has been a perfect pandemic leader. But things are now about to get even more challenging for Scottish nationalists.
Once any debate about Scottish secession recommences, the stark reality must be faced that Scotland could not have handled the pandemic better if it were independent. Rather, it would have faced economic ruin.
The UK had already spent £10bn on economic support in Scotland before the chancellor announced a further £800m in his Summer Statement. Before Covid-19 hit, Scotland’s annual public spending deficit was circa £10bn in the “good times” — how on earth could it have afforded to more than double that if it had faced the pandemic alone?
The nationalists seem to have no grasp of economics. They still have no answer on what currency an independent Scotland would use, continue to levy higher taxes north of the border that result in lower revenues, and prefer nationalisation to deregulation. Furthermore, they would take Scotland back into the EU, making it eligible for net contributions to the EU’s pandemic response and new budget. Ireland faces an extra bill of some £10bn — how could Scotland pay its EU share when the UK bails it out every year?
Now Scotland faces the mother of all recessions because — thanks to the SNP’s approach — it is coming out of lockdown slower, meaning business will take longer to pick up. Add to this Sturgeon’s dog whistling about considering quarantine for people crossing the England-Scotland border, and the tourism industry is going into a tailspin. Hotels are already reporting booking cancellations by worried English holidaymakers concerned they will be at the very least unwelcome.
Then there’s the lie that Scotland under Sturgeon has had a “good pandemic”. The reality is that Scotland has had 4,193 Covid-related deaths to England’s 46,736, which on a per capita basis puts Scotland at 767 per million to England’s 830. This is comparing lemons with mangoes, however, as population density matters for contagious diseases, and there are 47 English districts with a higher density than Glasgow, Scotland’s most densely populated area.
If you compare the number of deaths in relation to people per square kilometre, Scotland should have far better outcomes — but is 10 times worse at 10.96 deaths per million per square kilometre, compared to 1.92 for England.
What Sturgeon has been doing is erring on the side of caution by slowing down any decisions taken at Westminster Cobra meetings and then wrapping them in a Saltire flag. While this plays well with popular sentiment, it is not cost free. When health secretary Matt Hancock decided on 15 April that all patients being moved from English hospitals to care homes must be tested for Covid-19, the first minister delayed similar action in Scotland until 21 April, resulting in nearly a thousand patients being moved without testing.
Is it any coincidence that Scotland’s care home deaths are the highest in the UK, and twice the rate of England’s?
Real debate about independence has been practically impossible because media attention is focused on the Scottish government’s daily announcements full of warnings and foreboding. That will come to an end in the autumn and regular politics will resume. Already, George Galloway has announced a new anti-nationalist alliance and Tories — yes, Tories — are flocking to support him because he knows how to win debates. Cross-party pushback against independence is coming.
The Prime Minister has no need to panic, but every need to pace himself. If he does, I’d bet on Johnson’s tortoise to beat Sturgeon’s hare.
Main image credit: Getty