Dropping of post-Brexit trade border project will cost UK growth

Scrapping plans for the single trade window, a post-Brexit project to make trading frictionless, will cost UK growth, is strategically short-sighted, write Mathew Sim and Icaro Rebolledo 

At Davos last month, Mark Carney’s warning that we face “rupture, not transition” captured the defining feature of today’s global economy: fragmentation is no longer a risk on the horizon but a fixture of the operating environment. For open trading nations such as the UK, the tailwinds of globalisation can no longer be assumed. In a world of rising protectionism, supply-chain weaponisation and increasingly transactional trade policy, new market access will be harder to secure and slower to deliver.

That was the core argument of our report, Making Trade Work Again: Resetting the UK’s Trade Strategy for a Changing World. An effective trade strategy today is not just about striking new deals; it is about extracting maximum value from the relationships we already have.

Against that backdrop, the revelation that the government has abandoned plans for a single trade window, a project devised in 2020 to create a frictionless digital platform for trading post-Brexit, without an alternative is more than disappointing. It is strategically short-sighted. While implementation has clearly been difficult, the problem has not been the vision, but the delivery.

A properly functioning single trade window would have allowed traders to submit data once through a single digital portal, rather than repeatedly across multiple government systems. It would have streamlined customs declarations, regulatory checks and border compliance into one coherent process. That matters because administrative friction is the single biggest drag on UK trade – almost half of exporters cite it as their main obstacle. SMEs are hit hardest, lacking the compliance capacity of multinationals, while import declarations alone are estimated to cost businesses up to £4bn a year. Reducing duplication, cutting processing times and improving predictability lowers the fixed costs of trading and increases firms’ ability to use existing agreements.

More than a failed IT project

Other countries have recognised the value – over 90 had implemented some form of single trade window as of mid-2025. Those that have invested in modern, integrated digital border systems have reaped the rewards. New Zealand halved shippers’ reporting time and cut compliance costs by up to 50 per cent. In Singapore, 90 per cent of trade permits are processed in 10 minutes rather than taking days. And even smaller, emerging economies such as Rwanda and Guatemala have delivered national systems for less than $5m. 

This retreat therefore represents far more than a single failed IT project. An upgraded border is the gateway to a modern trading ecosystem: one where goods move seamlessly, paperwork is minimal and data flows securely between agencies and trading partners, making Britain faster, cheaper and easier to do business with. 

The right response is not retreat but reset. As we have set out in the past, that means relaunching a leaner, phased single trade window; creating a genuine digital front door with AI-powered guidance so firms can navigate rules and complete documentation more easily; enabling secure, real-time trade data exchange; deploying supply-chain intelligence to target checks more intelligently; and empowering a dedicated cross-government taskforce to drive implementation. These are practical reforms, not fantasy – and they are within the government’s control.

The growth case is straightforward. Lower compliance costs make exporting viable for more firms. Faster clearance improves cash flow and supply-chain reliability. Predictability reduces risk premiums and attracts investment. And in an era of geopolitical uncertainty, agility creates resilience, as firms are more able to pivot between markets and suppliers quickly in the event of shocks. 

If ministers are serious about growth, they must recommit to building the digital trade infrastructure the UK needs – and follow through. In a fractured world, trade facilitation must be treated as economic statecraft, not administrative housekeeping. The UK cannot control the direction of globalisation, but it can eliminate friction of its own making. Cutting self-imposed trade costs is one of the clearest pro-growth levers still firmly in government hands. 

Mathew Sim is a senior economic advisor at the Tony Blair Institute; Icaro Rebolledo is a senior policy advisor at the Tony Blair Institute