Covid case rates fall in every English local authority as R rate dips for first time in weeks
Covid case rates have fallen in every local authority in England for the first time since comparable figures have been recorded, while the “R” rate has decreased for the first time in weeks.
Not one of England’s 315 local authorities recorded a rise in Covid cases in the week to 26 July, according to analysis by PA – a trend not seen since the government began recording the data more than a year ago.
At the same time, the coronavirus reproduction rate – or R rate – is now estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.4, meaning the virus is still growing but at a slightly slower pace.
The latest government figures show a marginal decrease from last week, when the R rate stood at between 1.2 and 1.4.
An R rate above 1 means the virus is growing while a figure below 1 suggests that it is waning.
England’s current R number means that on average every 10 people infected with Covid-19 will infect between 11 and 14 other people.
The East of England has the highest R rate, estimated at between 1.3 and 1.5, while London, the South East and the South West all come in joint second at 1.2 to 1.5.
It comes after the daily count of new Covid infections rose for the second day running after seven days of consecutive falls.
England reported 31,117 new cases in the 24-hour-period to Thursday, and 85 new deaths – up from 27,734 cases and 91 deaths the day before.
Indications that the virus is growing from the R rate and daily case numbers suggest that the impact of the UK’s eased restrictions on 19 July is beginning to feed through to the data.
Earlier in the week, when the UK had reported six consecutive days of falling case numbers, Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged the British public not to get carried away by drop, and warned that the effects of Freedom Day had not yet fed through to the data.
“I’ve noticed obviously that we’re six days into some better figures, but it is very, very important that we don’t allow ourselves to run away with premature conclusions about this,” Johnson told broadcasters.
“People have got to remain very cautious and that remains the approach of the government,” he added.
His warning came as Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson – whose analysis has been among the most influential scientific advice to the government during the pandemic – said that the end of Covid in the UK could be just months away, thanks to the vaccination rollout.
“We’re not completely out of the woods but the equation has fundamentally changed,” Ferguson told the BBC.
But he agreed with the PM that the full impact of easing restrictions was yet to appear in the data.
“We won’t see for several more weeks what the effect of the unlocking is,” he said. “We need to remain cautious, especially with the potential increase in contact rates again as the weather becomes less fine and schools return.”