England’s fertility rate drops to record low
The fertility rate across England and Wales has fallen to a record low, according to official figures, which is likely to fuel clashes between policymakers and economists over immigration controls.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the total fertility rate, which is measured by the number of children women would expect to have, was 1.41 children per woman in 2024.
This is the lowest value on record for the third consecutive year, dating back to the inception of comparable data collection in 1938.
The fall represented a small decline from a rate of 1.42 in 2023, with fertility rates dropping most among those aged between 25 and 29.
The average age of mothers in London is the highest in the country at 32.5. However, the capital was one of only two regions in the UK to see an increase in the total fertility rate.
Canada had the lowest fertility rate of any local authority at 0.32.
The ONS stated that the increase in births in 2024 was outpaced by a rise in the number of adults, driven by higher net migration, which reached 431,000 in the year to last December.
Low fertility rates threaten population growth
Plummeting fertility rates are emerging as a point of contention between policymakers worldwide and economists over the economic problems posed by curbing immigration and potential labour shortages.
Top central bankers warned last week at the Jackson Hole conference in the US that ageing societies and low birth rates were one of the world’s “most pressing” issues.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that foreign nationals in Japan, who make up just three per cent of the workforce, contributed to around half of total workforce growth.
European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde said higher immigration had helped boost GDP in major economies across the eurozone.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who also attended the event in Wyoming, has frequently highlighted the UK’s ageing workforce as one of the country’s most pressing issues.
In a speech in March, Bailey said he offered “no value judgement” on migration but said high population growth was the “largest recent drive of labour supply growth” and, as a consequence, productivity.
The Labour government is meanwhile tightening rules on UK immigration, with voters seeing high net migration as a top issue.
Ministers are switching focus to getting inactive Brits into work although previous welfare reforms put forward by the government were binned after a revolt from backbenchers.
Policymakers across major economies are also keen to boost fertility rates through various initiatives and policy changes.
The UK’s two-child benefit cap has been blamed for reducing the fertility rate, with Reform UK’s Nigel Farage claiming the end of the cap would allow British families to have more children.
Sarah Pochin, a Reform UK MP, said successive Labour and Conservative governments had made it more “expensive” for Brits to have families, claiming low fertility rates presented a “fundamental crisis”.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces pressure from backbenchers to lift the cap, which could cost around £3bn, though instability in public finances suggests she would have to raise billions in taxes before committing to new spending pledges.