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England’s R rate climbs above 1 with London and the North West showing highest rates

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“Covid hospital patients are doubling every two weeks. That means we are heading for 10,000 Covid hospital patients by the end of August, which is about 20 times higher than this time last year. It is a very serious situation," Jeremy Hunt said this morning.

England’s R rate is now estimated to be between 1 and 1.1, meaning the virus is steadily growing, with some parts of the country worse affected than others.

The epidemic could be growing as much as 3 per cent per day, according to the latest government figures.

London and the North West have the highest R rate, each with R rates between 1.0 to 1.2 per cent.

However, the growth rate per day in the North West is up to four per cent, whereas in London the daily growth rate stands at a maximum of three per cent.  

London and the North West are the two areas that have seen the highest number of Covid cases linked to the variant first found in India, which is thought to be more contagious than the variant first found in Kent.

England’s current R number means that on average every 10 people infected with Covid-19 will infect between 10 and 11 other people.

Last week the R number was estimated to be between 0.9 and 1.1, with today’s daily growth rate estimated to be at 0 to +3 per cent, compared with -2 to +1 per cent last week.

Yesterday health secretary Matt Hancock said up to three-quarter of new UK Covid cases could be of the Indian variant.

According to data from Public Health England, cases of the Indian variant have risen by 3,535 to 6,959 since last week.

However, Hancock added that vaccines were “severing the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths from coronavirus”.

Nevertheless, there are concerns that the spread of the variant may derail plans to lift all remaining lockdown restrictions on 21 June.  

Some experts have today argued that some restrictions should remain in place until more of the population have received both Covid-19 vaccine doses, with Professor Christina Pagel, from University College London and a member of Independent Sage, saying reopening should be delayed for a few more months.

But the chief executive of industry body UK Hospitality, Kate Nicholls, said it was “absolutely critical” that the remainder of the hospitality sector is allowed to unlock on 21 June.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters yesterday he “didn’t see anything currently in the data” to divert from the June reopening target, adding: “But we may need to wait.”