English lockdown reduced Covid-19 rates more than thought, study finds
The reproductive number of Covid-19 in England could have been lower than experts originally thought in May, suggesting that the lockdown was successful in driving down cases, according to the latest scientific research.
The research indicated that infection rates fell during the last full month of lockdown before the Prime Minister began easing restrictions in June.
The infection rate halved every eight to nine days during May, the study, which tested more than 120,000 volunteers, found.
There were on average 13 positive cases for every 10,000 people during the month, with a reproduction number of 0.57. At the time the government estimated a so-called R number of 0.7-0.9.
“Our level of adherence in the UK, and the overall average behaviour was very effective at reducing transmission of the virus,” Steven Riley, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics, Imperial College London, told Reuters.
Younger adults were more likely to test positive than older people, the research found, demonstrating the requirement to abide by social distancing rules despite their often less severe symptoms.
People of Asian ethnicity were also more likely to test positive, the study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, found.
A separate pre-print study of a pilot test-and-trace scheme on the Isle of Wight found that it had reduced the total incidence of infections and the R number faster than in other areas of the UK.