Expect goals in Slovenia’s debut against sharp-shooting England
ENGLAND vs SLOVENIA
TOMORROW 5.30PM, ITV1
INTERNATIONAL friendlies do not often prove to be fertile ground for a worthwhile bet, especially when one of the world’s best footballing nations is taking on a comparative minnow. The outcome is usually only just short of certain, but there is little money to be made, as is the case with England at just 1/6 with Boylesports to beat Slovenia at Wembley tomorrow.
We will endeavour to weed out some better value bets though, and start by looking at the Balkan side’s recent record. In their nine games last season, they won just two, against lowly Slovakia and Northern Ireland. Outside of their home country, Slovenia played away four times last season and lost three matches, scoring just once in the process to force a 1-1 draw in Poland. It’s true that Slovenia netted five times in their most recent fixture, but it’s also true that it was against Europe’s perennial walkovers San Marino.
In comparison, England under Capello have looked in rude health and have particularly exploited their supremacy over their weaker opponents. In their four most recent meetings against teams ranked below Slovenia’s FIFA placing of sixtieth, England have scored 18 goals – an impressive average of 4.5 a game.
On the whole, England’s attacking players have started their season with all guns blazing, with Gerrard notching two league goals and Rooney and Defoe knocking in four apiece so far. Even defenders Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson got in on the act last Saturday – the Liverpool full-back for the second time this season.
With this in mind, the 1/2 available on Betdaq for at least three match goals looks good value. A more volatile but no less attractive bet is a buy of England’s goal minutes at 134 with Sporting Index. Two goals in the last third would pay a return – England have done at least this against Andorra, Kazakhstan and Slovakia since March. Slovenia have conceded late goals in their last two away games, after 73 minutes against Northern Ireland and 86 minutes against Belgium and both teams pack a considerably weaker punch than Slovenia’s defence can expect from the likes of Wayne and Jermain tomorrow.
Pointers…
Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 on Betdaq
Buy England goal minutes at 134 with Sporting Index