Five tests to end UK coronavirus lockdown: Which ones have we met?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson yesterday claimed we are “past the peak and on the downward slope” of the coronavirus outbreak.
And he has promised to release a “comprehensive plan” next week that outlines how to end the UK lockdown.
“I will be setting out a comprehensive plan next week to explain how we can get our economy moving, our children back to school and into childcare, and thirdly how we can travel to work and make life in the workplace safer,” he said.
“In short, how we can continue to suppress the disease and at the same time restart the economy.”
Last month, the government proposed five tests for lifting the UK lockdown – but has it met them?
Test one: The NHS has adequate capacity
The government will first assess if there is the capacity to treat seriously ill Covid-19 patients. This will be measured by the number of spare beds available in intensive care units.
At the start of the UK outbreak, public health officials were concerned that without “flattening the curve”, hospitals could be overwhelmed. That would leave doctors with the unenviable decision of deciding who received ventilation support.
In anticipation of a spike of critically ill patients, the NHS set up seven temporary critical care hospitals, including the NHS Nightingale Hospital in east London.
But these overspill facilities have not been overburdened. Pre-existing hospitals have coped after the NHS managed to double its ICU capacity to 1,555.
The UK appears to have passed this test.
Test two: A sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths
Public health scientists have consistently said the number of UK coronavirus deaths would take a while to fall.
This is because the delay between someone becoming infected and then recovering or dying can be around three to four weeks.
Data from Public Health England suggests the number of overall daily deaths is slowly decreasing.
Yesterday, 674 coronavirus deaths were recorded, which included deaths in care homes and the wider community ‒ down from the 980 recorded on 10 April.
But it appears that care homes are now the epicentres of coronavirus transmissions, and it’s not clear if deaths are falling in this area.
More data is needed to determine that deaths from coronavirus are consistently falling.
Test three: The R rate falls below 1 before UK lockdown ends
The UK coronavirus infection rate, known as the R value, is a critical factor in ending lockdown.
The R value means the number of people that each person who contracts coronavirus ends up infecting.
Scientists have been eager to keep the UK coronavirus reproduction value below one during lockdown.
This means that, on average, the infected population is spreading coronavirus to less than one other person, causing the virus to slowly die out.
“The reason we’re interested [in the R value] is because it not only gives you an idea of how many people the virus is likely to infect, but also an idea about how effective your interventions need to be to end the outbreak,” Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, told the Telegraph.
Scientists estimate the R value is around 0.7 currently. This is calculated using different statistical models.
With the number of both confirmed cases and hospital admissions, it is likely the reproduction value has fallen to a satisfactory level.
Test four: Testing and PPE capacity is sufficient
The government has been heavily criticised for being too slow to increase testing and tracing measures.
And hospital and care home staff have complained of personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages.
Some health workers have been asked to reuse PPE or, in some cases, work without PPE altogether.
The government has now met a target to hit at least 100,000 daily tests. Although more than 20,000 of these tests were mailed to people on Friday 1 May and have not yet been returned. MPs on the Science and Technology Committee have heard that a contact-tracing app will be available within two to three weeks.
More than 1bn items of PPE have been distributed but there are still major concerns about shortages. With demand for PPE so high across the world, there may well be challenges in sourcing PPE for quite some time.
So far, this test has not been met.
Test five: Avoiding a big second wave after end of UK lockdown
The government has been criticised for relaxing the fifth test needed to end UK lockdown.
The test initially stated scientists must be “confident that any adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections”.
It was later amended to add that the peak of infections should not “overwhelm the NHS”.
In any case, the Prime Minister has stated he does not want the R value to rise above one.
If that happened, infections and deaths would rise, and the UK would enter another strict lockdown.
It’s not clear how the government can be confident that the R value can be kept below one if shops, schools and workplaces are gradually opened.
To meet this test, the government would have to ease the lockdown incredibly slowly and experiment with different measures.
So far then, this test has not been met.