Flow of money for The Liffey hints at huge Hunt Cup win
HANDICAPS over the straight course at Royal Ascot are definitely not for the faint hearted.
They usually feature huge fields, leading to blanket finishes with runners spread out across the track.
Luck can also play a major role, as the speed can often hold up on one side of the track better than the other, so it’s worth paying close attention to races earlier on the day to check for any track bias.
Today’s Royal Hunt Cup (5.00pm) is often one of the toughest handicaps of the entire week, with 30 runners set to go to post over the straight mile.
In races like this it can pay to play the exotic markets and throw a few selections together in a Quinella (pick the first two home), with World Pool’s deep liquidity presenting the opportunity for a major payday from a small stake.
UK punters can bet into the World Pool through on-course Tote betting terminals and via Tote.co.uk on all 35 races at Ascot this week.
As it happens, we are already sitting on a ‘good ticket’ for this race, having tipped up THE LIFFEY ante-post at 14/1, and Joseph O’Brien’s runner forms the basis of my Quinella.
Since then, this four-year-old has been the subject of serious market support, so much so that the gamble has generated plenty of media attention and has become one of the main stories of this race.
He certainly caught the eye on his return to action when fourth in a Listed race at Naas, and that form was well advertised by the winner, Copacabana Sands, going on to win a Group Three at Leopardstown last week.
Connections have indicated that they think The Liffey is well-handicapped and with Ryan Moore jocked up, it’s no real surprise that his price has crashed all the way into 13/2.
Writing in his World Pool blog, Moore said of his chances: “There’s plenty to like about him, but it’s going to be very competitive and there will be several yards who think they have a horse well-handicapped and capable of winning this.”
There are of course likely to be many well-treated runners in here and there’s enough to suggest EPICTETUS could be one of them.
When trained by John and Thady Gosden this horse was kept exclusively to Group and Listed races but on his first run for Jamie Osborne he was dropped into a handicap at Newbury and showed promise to finish five lengths behind winner MY CLOUD.
That was a good effort on his seasonal return and suggested that he still retained plenty of ability.
Just under two years ago he was a Group Three winner and hit a high rating of 113, so there’s every reason to suggest he can run well here off a 12lb lower rating.
The yard often do well at Ascot with recruits from other yards, and Osborne won this race in 2014 with Field Of Dream, a horse he got from Luca Cumani.
He looks overpriced and I’ll also be playing him on a Win and Place line with World Pool.
The aforementioned My Cloud was a taking winner at Newbury and he is the final horse to include in our Quinella.
The way he quickly made up ground on the leaders there, without Silvestre de Sousa ever having to exert maximum pressure, suggested that he was a horse with plenty in hand of his handicap mark.
He is clearly held in high regard by his trainer Roger Varian and that’s reflected by the fact he has been sent off as favourite for all of his five starts to date.
It looks like being six in a row here and he has been favourite for this race ever since winning at Newbury.
There’s clearly more to come from this son of Blue Point and he looks likely to be a Group horse in the making.
POINTERS WEDNESDAY
Epictetus (Win and Place) 5.00pm Royal Ascot
The Liffey, Epictetus, My Cloud 5.00pm Royal Ascot
(Quinella)
Already advised
The Liffey 14/1 e/w 5.00pm Royal Ascot