Forecast rain could derail Stradivarius’ shot at history
WHEN Yeats won his fourth Ascot Gold Cup (4.15pm) in 2009, few, if any, thought his incredible feat would be matched.
However, in Stradivarius we have a genuine contender who could match him.
John and Thady Gosden’s star stayer bids to make it five Royal Ascot wins in a row – one in the Queen’s Vase and four in the Gold Cup – and few would begrudge him another success.
He showed he’s still very much the top dog in the staying division when winning the Sagaro Stakes on his seasonal reappearance and on all known form, is going to be a very tough nut to crack.
The big concern for the favourite is the prospect of a significant amount of rain falling in the build-up to racing on Thursday, which, if the forecasted amount does arrive, will not be music to the ears of Stradivarius’ connections.
The Gosden team have regularly stated he’s better on a sound surface and although he won this on soft ground last year, he was very disappointing on a similar surface in the Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day at the end of the season.
In contrast, rain will be no hindrance to either Trueshan or Subjectivist, and both hold solid claims.
The former was a very good winner of the aforementioned Long Distance Cup and warmed up for this with a solid performance when runner-up under a penalty at Chester.
Subjectivist won the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak last season on heavy ground and although this 2m4f trip is an unknown, he looked to have stamina in abundance when bolting up in the Dubai Gold Cup over two miles on his seasonal bow.
Both look viable alternatives to the favourite, but I’m going to chance two at even bigger prices in EMPEROR OF THE SUN and TWILIGHT PAYMENT.
Jockey bookings suggest Emperor Of The Sun is the least fancied of the Ballydoyle challenge but he was a taking winner of a Listed race at Leopardstown over 1m6f and the way he went through the line gave optimism for this longer trip.
We’ve seen the apparent Ballydoyle second or third string win big races before and with four places on offer with Paddy Power, 20/1 looks a solid each-way bet.
Twilight Payment has only run twice over two miles, both times in the Melbourne Cup, but he finished less than four lengths behind the winner in 2019 and then won it a year later.
Those performances suggest he’s well worth a go at this 2m4f trip and he could easily run into a place at 28/1.
And, if you’re betting into the World Pool at Ascot on Thursday, I wouldn’t put anyone off sticking those two and Stradivarius into a Quinella in the hope of a big payout.
POINTERS
Emperor Of The Sun e/w 4.15pm Ascot
Twilight Payment e/w 4.15pm Ascot
Quinella: Stradivarius, Emperor Of The Sun, Twilight Payment