FOREX ANALYST PICKS
FOREX STRATEGIST JOEL KRUGER
My pick: Buy dollar-yen at ¥79.50
Expertise: Classic technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 month-12 months
This market has been under intense pressure over the past few months, with the price dropping relentlessly to multi-year lows and now quickly closing in on a retest of the record lows from 1995 at the ¥80.00 level. Despite the oversold technical studies, we cannot rule out a test and break below the critical barriers at ¥80.00. At this point, any further declines should be limited, with the greater risk of a major upside correction back in favour of the US dollar. Target ¥100 with a stop at ¥73.50.
FOREX STRATEGIST JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Short euro-dollar from $1.3960, long euro-sterling above £0.8935
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with average time Average time frame of trades: 1 day-1 week
A late entry on euro-dollar encouraged me to hold off on the short I drafted last week. Instead of cancelling my trade on the sharp reversal after Tuesday, I decided to go short at $1.3960 instead as the reversal momentum cooled, placing a stop at $1.4110. As for my Aussie dollar-New Zealand dollar reversal, the Aussie dollar’s constant headwinds stopped it out. Elsewhere, I am looking for a euro-sterling close above £0.8935 for a long with an initial stop and target of 75 points.
FOREX STRATEGIST ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Short euro-dollar (pending)
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week-6 months
Euro-dollar looks to be carving out a diamond top below the $1.42 figure, a juncture that has acted as a significant upside and downside barrier since the second half of 2008. This is a rare bearish reversal formation that typically precedes a large-scale move lower. Confirmation is still lacking and I look for a daily close below $1.3804 – the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the steep advance from early September – to go short. I will target resistance-turned-support at $1.33, August’s swing top.