When the Russian Army exploded the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023, the landscape changed dramatically. The body of water, which was once so large that people living nearby sometimes called it a “sea”, caused catastrophic flooding downstream.
Upstream, the exposed basin experienced a dramatic transformation, with lush vegetation taking over the terrain. Tall weeds, tangled bushes and willow thickets sprouted from the soil that had been underwater for decades.
The changed landscape has become the theatre for a new type of combat between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. While drones have become ubiquitous across frontlines in Ukraine, they aren’t as helpful when it comes to spotting the enemy in the dense thickets of the former basin.
Several media sources have recently described the direct combat that has taken place in the boggy terrain. Ukrainian forces try to track and ambush Russian infantry units attempting to infiltrate the area by stepping into the tree line themselves to engage Russian troops in firefights.
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“When it exploded, the reservoir mostly emptied out, leaving a narrower river and a reservoir bed,” said Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst from the Finnish Black Bird Group, who is familiar with the Zaporizhzhia oblast. “Even in its narrower form, the Dnipro River is still a significant water obstacle that would be an issue for the advancing Russians to cross,” he added.
“The area of the dried-out riverbank should be considered as a no man’s land because it’s possibly easier for the Russians to enter,” said Kastehelmi. The expert spoke to the broadcaster about Russia’s presence in the former basin, which he said was only for reconnaissance purposes and could “not be the basis for a larger, more significant offensive”.
Why is the area of the drained Kakhovka reservoir strategically important for Russia?
This area basically forms a natural obstacle between the Ukrainian and Russian forces. Even though it is drained, some infantry movement around there is more possible than before. It’s still a very difficult area to operate in, especially when we’re talking about larger movements. It’s an area which separates the two counterparts, and the Ukrainians most likely want to keep it this way.
How are both sides adapting their strategy to this terrain characterised by a flourishing vegetation?
The forest there isn’t fully grown yet. So infantries can move somewhat concealed in the area, but it’s not the same as some older and denser forests. There’s also a certain type of vegetation that grows in these old riverbanks. It’s not like it could provide the same kind of shelter as actual forests.
Second, the area is full of smaller streams and ponds. It’s not an easy terrain where troops can move as freely as they do on solid ground. It’s different from the other types of terrain where the war is taking place.
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How is combat changing in this context?
There’s a limited amount of combat in the area. Smaller Russian infiltration and reconnaissance patrols operate in this area, just like Ukrainian ones. Yet these are smaller infantry detachments. Of course, Ukrainians may need to secure the area so that the Russians don’t get to the other side.
Yet then again, this place has some of the same realities as in some other directions. Reconnaissance drones fly around the area trying to spot enemies. Drone strikes against spotted enemies happen. It should also be mentioned that many frontline areas have been left untreated for a long time. Not only on the dried riverbank where a lot of vegetation has grown, but in many other frontline areas where farming hasn’t happened for years.
The Dnipro River – and the dam – lead up to Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s fifth largest city. Why is this southern Ukrainian city important for Russia?
The battle for Zaporizhzhia has been going on for a prolonged amount of time and there are active battles in some areas of the Zaporizhzhia oblast. The Russians have been trying to advance toward the city, but it’s really a difficult thing to do. They haven’t had much progress throughout the years.
The Russians have annexed Zaporizhzhia in their legislation; from the Russian point of view, it's a Russian territory. They currently hold something like 75% of the Zaporizhzhia oblast. So, the main part of this governmental area is occupied by the Russians. But some of the most important and difficult areas still haven’t been taken, and the front hasn’t moved much over the last few years.
Yet taking it [Dnipro] would be difficult because there is the river and the dam, which would be extremely hard to cross. It would be a very difficult operation to cross the river and deal with all the height differences and the dam area, especially in the age of ground warfare.
Ukrainians would hold on to it, especially the left bank of the river if the Russians got into the city. Zaporizhzhia is a city with around 700,000 people, or at least this was the case before 2022. The Russians haven’t had such a large urban battle in this war yet. If they were to get to Zaporizhzhia then a very gruesome and grinding urban battle would follow. It could take months if we compare look at how slowly things are progressing in towns that are 10 times smaller than Zaporizhzhia.
Yet Russian and Ukrainian reconnaissance teams have been playing a game of cat and mouse in the former basin?
They want to keep some pressure on the Ukrainians. They have the manpower to keep the pressure up in multiple areas at the same time. Losing a few squads to Ukrainian drones every now and then isn’t a big issue for the Russians. They can endure the losses and then force the Ukrainians to keep troops on the left bank of the river. They [the Russians] need to direct resources to conduct reconnaissance in the area. This is their strategy rather than forming an offensive and changing the situation in the area.
