El Nino set to become strongest in over a century, UK forecasters warn

The Met Office has warned that the current El Nino event is on track to become the most intense in more than a hundred years, with sea‑surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific expected to rise above three degrees Celsius above average.

What the forecast means

El Nino is declared when tropical Pacific waters warm at least 0.5°C above the long‑term norm, setting off a cascade of changes in global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns. This year’s anomaly is already nearly two degrees above the baseline, according to the Climate Brink dashboard, and could push regional temperatures to 2.6°C above a rolling 30‑year average.

"We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees, that is unheard of in modern climate records," said Adam Scaife, head of long‑range forecasting at the Met Office.

Scaife, a physicist specialising in climate modelling, added that the signal is unprecedented in the agency’s forecasts and warned of "really severe droughts" across South America and the western Pacific.

Why it matters to the United Kingdom

Beyond distant impacts, the UK can expect a shift in its own weather. The Met Office predicts a wetter, stormier autumn, with increased rainfall likely around November. Such conditions could affect flood risk management and agricultural planning across the country.

Looking ahead

Experts say the pattern will not be a short‑term blip but a persistent climate driver for months to come. The combination of higher temperatures and altered precipitation could exacerbate food‑security concerns in vulnerable regions, while also influencing energy demand and insurance claims in the UK.

Monitoring will continue throughout the year, with updates expected as the oceanic temperatures evolve and the atmospheric response becomes clearer.