France's immigrant share set to keep rising as birthrate falls, Insee projects

France will continue to see its immigrant population grow as a share of the total through 2070, according to new projections from the national statistics institute Insee, even though the country's overall population is expected to decline.

The central scenario assumes net migration of 150,000 people a year, a 50% increase on the average of the past three decades. That would add more than 6.5 million foreign-born residents over the next 44 years. Under the high scenario of 230,000 annually, the total reaches 10 million; the low scenario of 70,000 still adds 3 million.

Migration rising, births falling

Net migration averaged 65,000 a year from 1970 to 1995, then 99,000 from 1995 to 2026. Insee's projection of 150,000 reflects what it calls a reasonable continuation of recent trends, though the institute stresses the uncertainty: the low and high scenarios sit 80,000 either side of the central figure.

Lou Wolff, head of Insee's Demographic and Social Studies Unit, said the fertility of immigrant populations is only slightly higher than average. "We estimate the effect of this fertility at 0.1 points in the average total fertility rate for the population as a whole," he said. Research with the National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined) shows children of immigrants adopt fertility behaviour "very close to, and almost identical to, those of the rest of the population."

We can be certain that this immigrant share will, structurally, continue to increase.

Changing origins

In 2025, nearly 8 million immigrants lived in France, 11.6% of the population. Of those, 33% had acquired French nationality. The foreign-born population totalled 9.6 million, or 14% of residents.

Almost half of immigrants (49.2%) were born in Africa, up from a predominantly European profile in 1968. The leading countries of origin are Algeria (12.6%), Morocco (11.7%), Portugal (7.2%), Tunisia (4.9%), Italy (3.5%), Turkey (3.5%) and Spain (3.0%). United Nations projections show Africa's population doubling to nearly 2.9 billion by 2075, a shift already visible in France's immigration data.

Election context

Insee declines to model the exact immigrant share in 2070, calling the exercise a projection, not a forecast. But Wolff acknowledges the direction is clear: with natural increase turning negative and net migration positive, the immigrant share must rise. The findings arrive a year before a presidential election in which immigration is expected to dominate debate, yet the institute stops short of spelling out the political implications.