Pacific islands risk food shortages as tuna moves east
Scientists say overshooting the Paris‑Agreement target could strip Pacific islanders of vital fish catches and spark an economic crisis.
A new assessment by the UN Environment Programme predicts that global warming will peak at 1.8°C above pre‑industrial levels, exceeding the 1.5°C ceiling set by the Paris Agreement. The overshoot is expected to drive tuna populations eastward, away from the waters of the Pacific islands where a third of the world’s tuna is currently harvested.
Economic fallout
At a summit in Palau, scientists warned that the shift could erase $90 million in fishing licence fees, roughly 13 % of government revenue for the region, and slash coastal fishers’ catches by 65 %. That loss translates to about two meals per family each week, a source of clean, free protein that would have to be replaced.
That's about two meals per family per week that is not on the plate, of clean, free healthy protein that will need to be replaced,
Andrew Jones, deputy director general of The Pacific Community, said the change would hit the most vulnerable households hardest.
Calls for stronger climate action
Maina Talia, climate change minister of low‑lying Tuvalu, called the findings proof that “the climate crisis is real now, it is here now”. Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, urged the world to redouble efforts to keep warming within 1.5°C.
Ralph Regenvanu, climate minister of Vanuatu, singled out Australia, the largest member of the Pacific regional bloc and a major coal and gas exporter, for expanding fossil‑fuel sales. He warned that continued emissions would deepen the islands’ vulnerability.
Anthony Albanese, prime minister of Australia, acknowledged the challenge, saying the nation’s energy transition “can’t happen overnight” but that gas still has a role as renewables scale up.
What lies ahead
Pacific leaders are now pressing wealthy nations for financing to adapt infrastructure, protect freshwater supplies and diversify food sources. Without accelerated mitigation and robust adaptation aid, the region faces not only a dietary shortfall but a broader economic shock that could reshape livelihoods across the South Pacific.
