Sweden's centre-left edges ahead as exit polls show tight parliamentary race

With almost nine‑tenths of votes counted, Sweden's 349‑seat Riksdag appears to be split by a single seat. The bloc led by Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democratic Party holds a one‑seat majority over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right‑wing coalition, which includes the anti‑immigration Sweden Democrats.

Election results in focus

Andersson, who served as Sweden’s first female prime minister in 2021‑22, told supporters,

For now, we are in the lead. And if that is confirmed, Sweden will have a new government.

Her party secured roughly 28 % of the vote, its lowest share in more than a century, while Kristersson’s Moderate Party attracted about 19.9 %. The Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmie Akesson, fell to 17.6 %, a drop from 20.5 % in the 2022 election.

Implications for Sweden's politics

The left bloc’s narrow lead hinges on the cooperation of three smaller parties, the Left Party, the Centre Party and the Green Party, whose policy priorities differ markedly. Andersson has pledged higher taxes on banks and high incomes, cuts to healthcare waiting lists and reforms to improve school performance.

Kristersson, whose government has relied on Sweden Democrats’ support for four years, said he would respect any attempt by the opposition to form a government but warned that “the four have irreconcilable differences”. He added that he would explore possibilities within the non‑socialist majority to create a workable coalition.

Looking ahead

Final results will not be confirmed until the remaining municipal votes are counted on Wednesday and an automatic recount by regional authorities is completed, a process that typically takes a week. If the centre‑left coalition secures the majority, Sweden could see a shift back to more progressive fiscal policies and a re‑evaluation of the Sweden Democrats’ influence on law‑making.

Should the right retain power, the existing partnership with the Sweden Democrats is likely to continue, keeping the party’s hard‑line stance on immigration and law‑and‑order issues in the policy mix.