Fugitif can escape with December’s Gold Cup
WE’RE back at the home of the Jumps this week as Cheltenham hosts its two-day Christmas Meeting.
While there’s some good racing on Friday, Saturday’s card makes more appeal at this stage from an ante-post perspective and the big handicap, the December Gold Cup (1.50pm), is definitely a race to focus on.
This is the middle one of a series of big two-and-a-half-mile handicaps run in November, December and January at Cheltenham and the form of the preceding events are always worth heeding.
Last month’s edition was won in good style by Il Ridoto, who has taken an eight-pound hike in the weights as a result, so despite the impressive manner of his win, that may be enough to stop him following up.
Several horses shaped well behind Il Ridoto that day, including Madara, who finished strongly for fourth and looks set to go well, but the play could be last year’s winner FUGITIF, who was a further place behind in fifth.
Richard Hobson’s nine-year-old ran a solid race there on his reappearance, when not particularly fancied in the market and on ground that would have been a touch too quick for him.
This race is sure to have been the plan and now with the softer ground much more to his liking, everything should be set for a big run.
Last season Fugitif got the better of Il Ridoto by just a short-head in a thrilling finish, but this time around he is seven pounds better off at the weights with the Paul Nicholls-trained rival.
Fugitif is also a pound lower than his mark last year, so everything looks set for him to put up a bold show in a bid to retain his crown.
He seldom runs a bad race around Cheltenham, particularly the greater stamina test of two-and-a-half miles around the New Course, so he has all the hallmarks of a very solid each-way bet, with the 13/2 on offer more than fair.
In the following two-mile BetMGM Handicap Chase (2.25pm) I’m keen to take on those at the top of the market.
Beau Balko is always going to be popular as a horse that travels so well in his races, but I’m not convinced by his effort when coming off the bridle and couldn’t trust him at short enough odds.
Master Chewy took a fall last weekend and it would be hard to have confidence he’ll take his place in this.
Libberty Hunter makes his seasonal return and Issar d’Airy was disappointing at Newbury recently, so there are plenty of questions about the top few.
Instead, I’m drawn to TRIPLE TRADE at attractive odds of around 11/1.
He ran really well at Cheltenham’s October and November meetings last year, finishing second and then winning off a mark of 130.
After taking a rise in the weights after that, he continued to hold his form, including when running with plenty of credit in the Grand Annual at the Festival.
He hasn’t shown his best form in two starts this season at Cheltenham and Ascot, but there were excuses for those efforts.
The stiff two miles and a furlong trip at Ascot probably wasn’t ideal last time and he will be happier back over two miles at Cheltenham.
Crucially, he’s now back down to his last winning handicap mark of 130, so everything points to him going well and he’s another cracking each-way bet.
For more views and analysis on Cheltenham’s card, why not give the Morning Wire Punter Podcast a listen, live on a Friday morning and available on Spotify.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Fugitif e/w 1.50pm Cheltenham
Triple Trade e/w 2.25pm Cheltenham