Europe braces for record heat as over 90 million face 35°C temperatures
A forecast based on German weather data predicts unprecedented heat affecting tens of millions across western and southern Europe.
Europe is set to experience its most extensive heatwave on record, with an analysis indicating that more than 90 million people could be exposed to temperatures above 35 °C on Wednesday. The estimate draws on forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and population projections from the Joint Research Centre, covering the continent apart from Turkey.
Scope of the heatwave
The blistering conditions are expected to hit western and southern regions hardest. In France, roughly 30 million residents in low‑lying areas could see temperatures breach the 35 °C mark, while mountainous zones and the northeast are likely to stay cooler. Similar levels are projected for about 29 million people in Italy and 21 million in Spain. The heatwave also stretches into the Balkans, affecting Greece, Albania and Croatia. Further north, the United Kingdom could see more than 43 million people endure temperatures above 30 °C, putting the nation on track for its hottest summer ever, according to the Met Office.
Why it matters
Repeated heatwaves are a clear signal of accelerating global warming, driven largely by fossil‑fuel combustion. The health toll is already evident, with thousands of excess deaths linked to extreme heat this summer. The analysis may understate the true exposure: the model’s 6.5 km resolution does not fully capture urban heat‑island effects.
"The analysis likely underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas," said David Jablonski of the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard.
The figures were compiled by AFP using a method similar to that of Klimadashboard, cross‑referencing population density with the weather model. Residents are counted if the forecast predicts temperatures above the thresholds at any point during the day.
Looking ahead
Experts warn that heatwaves will become more frequent, longer and more intense as the climate continues to warm. Policymakers in the United Kingdom are already convening emergency meetings to assess the financial strain on public services, as detailed in a recent report on the government's response to the heat crisis.
With urban areas likely bearing the brunt of future spikes, the need for heat‑mitigation strategies, from green infrastructure to revised building codes, is becoming increasingly urgent.
