Goldman: Junior white-collar workers squeezed hardest by AI hiring slump
Artificial intelligence is beginning to weigh most heavily on junior white-collar jobs, according to Goldman Sachs, as new research points to a growing divide between workers entering industries such as consulting and advertising, and their more experienced colleagues.
The Wall Street bank analysed employment across more than 800 occupations and found that AI-related hiring pressures were strongest among entry-level workers, while the effect across the broader labour market remained relatively small.
The findings add to concerns surrounding the traditional route into City and professional services careers, where junior staff have typically carried out research and administrative work that generative AI can increasingly perform.
Goldman found that industries with greater exposure to AI automation have generally suffered weaker growth in job openings since the second half of 2022, with management consulting, advertising, software publishing and call centres among those falling furthest below their historic employment trends.
Information and communications services, another highly exposed part of the economy, has seen employment growth slow across almost all major developed economies since 2022.
Across the overall workforce, a 10 per cent occupational exposure to AI was associated with only a 0.1 percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in the US, France and Canada.
For entry-level workers, Goldman estimated the effect at more than 0.2 percentage points in the US and more than 0.6 percentage points in Australia.
UK job market weakens further
The research comes as Britain’s labour market continues to lose momentum, particularly for those looking for work.
Vacancies fell to 707,000 in the three months to July, their lowest level in more than five years, according to Office for National Statistics figures published this week.
The number of employees on company payrolls also fell for a sixth consecutive month in July, while private sector regular wage growth slowed to 2.8 per cent, its weakest pace since October 2020.
Goldman’s findings do not suggest AI is responsible for that broader UK slowdown. The bank concluded that the employment effects of the technology remain concentrated in a relatively narrow group of industries and workers.
But Goldman combined 11 surveys of AI use and found the UK was among the leading developed economies for adoption, alongside the US, France and the Netherlands.
Separate Lloyds Business Barometer research published this week found 54 per cent of UK businesses said AI had created new roles at their companies, while 21 per cent were introducing dedicated AI jobs.
Some 58 per cent plan to increase spending on AI skills over the next year, although nearly a third said their workforce currently lacked the capabilities needed to make full use of the technology.
Amanda Murphy, chief executive of Lloyds Business and Commercial Banking, said businesses would need to build the “skills, culture and confidence” to use AI effectively.